【广发资产研究】资产配置如何应对新旧秩序切换——海外资产篇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition period between the old and new global order, emphasizing the need for a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation in response to the current chaotic environment. It highlights that the key to success in the second half of 2025 lies in understanding the win rates for Chinese assets and the odds for U.S. assets [3][11]. Group 1: 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, challenged by three main factors: the emergence of Deepseek affecting U.S.-China tech narratives, concerns over U.S. fiscal tightening led by Musk's Doge initiative, and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs increasing uncertainty around U.S. dollar hegemony [3][12]. - Non-U.S. assets outperformed U.S. assets in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12]. Group 2: Win Rates - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions likely to converge [15]. - The introduction of tariffs and the subsequent easing of these measures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding U.S. economic performance, with potential recession risks still looming [19][44]. Group 3: Odds - U.S. assets are currently overvalued compared to non-U.S. assets, indicating asymmetric risks that investors should be cautious of [5][45]. - The article warns that the pricing of U.S. assets does not adequately reflect the risks of a potential recession, suggesting that the market is underestimating the structural risks associated with U.S. economic policies [46][94]. Group 4: Outlook for 2025H2 - The global asset allocation strategy should continue to focus on the "global barbell strategy," which balances low-risk assets with high-risk, high-reward investments [72][75]. - The article identifies three core contradictions driving the new investment paradigm: rising anti-globalization, debt cycle misalignment, and the accelerating trend of AI industries [9][72]. - Specific asset classes recommended include Chinese government bonds, gold, and equities from emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing global economic shifts [88][104].