警告信号，“著名反指”来了

Core Viewpoint - Global fund managers are entering risk assets at a record pace, pushing market sentiment to multi-month highs, but Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett warns that this could trigger a clear sell signal, as the survey is known as a "famous contrarian indicator" [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Sentiment - The latest survey indicates that investor risk appetite has increased at the fastest rate since 2001 over the past three months [1]. - In July, the allocation to U.S. stocks saw the largest increase since December, while the allocation to tech stocks recorded the largest three-month increase since 2009 [7]. - The average cash level held by fund managers dropped to 3.9% in July from 4.2% in June, triggering a "sell" signal [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Optimism is driven by the S&P 500 index reaching new historical highs and increased confidence in corporate earnings and the U.S. handling of trade disputes [2]. - The proportion of respondents believing that the economy will not enter a recession in the next year has completely reversed, with net 59% of respondents expressing this view [9][11]. - Concerns about recession have decreased for the third consecutive month, marking the lowest level since February 25 [10]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Despite the positive sentiment, investors still view trade conflicts as the largest tail risk, with 38% of investors identifying it as such [12][13]. - The expected final tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on trade partners has risen to 14%, up from 13% in June, indicating ongoing market attention to trade policy [15]. - The second-largest risk identified is inflation hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, followed by a significant decline in the dollar [12]. Group 4: Market Strategies - The most crowded trading strategies currently include shorting the dollar (34%), going long on the "seven giants" tech stocks (26%), and going long on gold (25%) [14]. - The survey indicates that the current market conditions are approaching "overheated" levels, with several indicators aligning with this assessment [19].