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泡泡玛特“炸裂季报”,华尔街认为“只是大致符合买方高预期”!摩根大通预计“获利了结”,接下来还有五大催化剂
华尔街见闻·2025-07-16 10:56

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has issued a strong half-year earnings warning, with revenue growth exceeding 200% and net profit growth exceeding 350%, but major Wall Street firms believe the performance "only roughly meets high expectations from buyers" [1][4][10] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by no less than 200%, indicating revenue of at least 13.7 billion RMB, surpassing Goldman Sachs' expectation of 187% year-on-year growth [3][10] - The net profit, excluding changes in the fair value of financial instruments, is expected to grow by no less than 350%, meaning a net profit of 4.5 billion RMB, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of 3.8 billion RMB [3][10] - The net profit margin has significantly improved to approximately 30%, compared to 20% in the first half of 2024 and 26% in the second half of 2024 [3][12] Group 2: Analyst Predictions and Revisions - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings forecasts for Pop Mart for 2025-2027, with the target price increased from 227 HKD to 260 HKD, maintaining a neutral rating [2][11] - Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its earnings predictions, increasing the 2025 revenue forecast from 280.11 billion RMB to 303.85 billion RMB and the adjusted EPS from 6.10 RMB to 7.15 RMB [13] - Both firms expect significant growth in revenue and net profit, with compound annual growth rates of 23% and 25% for 2025-2027, respectively [13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - After a 60% increase in stock price over the past three months and a staggering 588% rise over the past year, Morgan Stanley warns of potential profit-taking pressure in the short term [5][8] - Despite the strong performance, Morgan Stanley remains cautious about short-term stock price movements, suggesting investors buy on dips [8] Group 4: Catalysts for Future Growth - Morgan Stanley has identified five key catalysts to watch: the opening of two new "POPOP" jewelry stores, the premiere of the "Labubu & Friends" animation series, the launch of Labubu x Uniqlo T-shirts, the anticipated release of Labubu 4.0, and the potential introduction of interactive/AI toys [9][10]