美国通胀“发令枪”——美国6月CPI点评

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting rising global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. Core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies suggests inflation may enter an upward range [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions [34][40]