国泰海通｜房地产：城市发展存量提质，更新收储蓄势待发——城市工作会议点评

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the future policy direction for the real estate sector will focus on achieving the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, with a shift in housing policy from quantity to quality and exploring stock opportunities on the supply side to stabilize quality blue-chip companies and maintain the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The central urban work conference highlighted that urbanization in China is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with urban development shifting from large-scale expansion to improving the quality and efficiency of existing stock [2]. - The meeting outlined seven key tasks for urban work, which align with the top-level design addressing "urban diseases" discussed in the 2015 urban work conference [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, anticipating that the fourth quarter of this year will face high baseline challenges. It is expected that policies will focus on storage and urban renewal in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and strive to achieve the goal of stabilization [1]. - A significant gap of 236 million square meters exists between sales and completions in 2024, indicating a potential recovery in completions in the second half of the year [1]. Focus Areas - The conference emphasized the need for high-quality urban renewal and the establishment of a new model for real estate development, which includes enhancing quality in new projects and updating existing stock [3]. - The topic of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation was reiterated, with expectations for increased project volume by 2025 and a focus on the pace of issuing policy-supported loans (PSL) [3]. - National land storage plans for the first half of 2025 are projected to reach 475.9 billion yuan, while special bond issuance is only 96.1 billion yuan, indicating a need for accelerated issuance by local governments [3].