国泰海通｜有色：锡牛或将启，布局迎时机——锡行业深度报告

Core Viewpoint - The global tin market is experiencing a decline in ore grade and rising cost levels, while macroeconomic conditions are improving and demand expectations are positive, leading to a tightening supply situation that enhances the pricing power of mining companies. The central price of tin is expected to rise, suggesting investment in leading companies with quality resources [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Global tin ore grades are declining, and the cost structure is shifting upwards. According to ITA, the complete cost of tin mining was approximately $25,581 per ton in 2022 and is projected to rise to $33,800 per ton by 2027. The recovery of mines in Myanmar is slow due to a 30% export tax on tin, and political instability in parts of Africa and South America may further disrupt supply. Overall, global tin production is expected to reach 300,000 tons by 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, while total supply is projected at 380,000 tons, also a 2% increase [2][3]. Demand Trends - The downstream sector, particularly tin solder, which accounts for about 56% of consumption, is expected to see increased demand due to advancements in AI and the recovery of consumer electronics. The global semiconductor cycle is stabilizing, which will likely boost solder demand. Additionally, the photovoltaic sector's impact on overall tin demand is limited, as it only represents about 20% of solder production. A projected supply gap of 8,300 tons in refined tin by 2025 highlights the growing supply-demand imbalance [3]. Macroeconomic Environment - The global monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, with the U.S. PCE inflation rate recorded at 2.34% in May 2025, moving closer to the 2% target. Although employment data shows some risks, market expectations suggest potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which would benefit asset prices. The overall liquidity in the market is expected to improve, positively influencing raw material prices [4].