国泰海通｜宏观：通胀温和回升，美联储仍可观望

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6% [1] - Core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations [1] - The increase in energy prices is identified as the main driver behind the rise in inflation for June [1] Tariff Impact - The article notes that the impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to manifest, although the overall effect remains moderate [1] - Specific categories such as clothing, furniture, sports equipment, and audio-visual products showed significant month-on-month price increases, while the inflation for automobiles and pharmaceuticals remained weak [1] Core Services - In June, inflation in core services, particularly in medical and transportation services, showed strong performance, with a notable increase in airfares [2] - The housing component saw a slight decrease in month-on-month growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, while rent inflation remained stable [2] Outlook - The article suggests that inflation is expected to rise moderately, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach [2] - It is indicated that the current price reductions by exporters are not yet significant, and the tariff costs are mainly borne by U.S. importers [2] - As existing inventories are gradually consumed, the pressure from tariffs is anticipated to shift from importers to consumers, potentially leading to further increases in CPI in July [2]