美国通胀“发令枪”——美国6月CPI点评

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]