外围扰动效应边际递减，国内自主性显著提升：申万期货早间评论-20250717

Group 1 - The article highlights that the marginal effects of external disturbances are decreasing, while domestic autonomy is significantly improving [1] - The chemical industry in China is experiencing low price indices, profit margins, and valuations, with expectations for positive changes in supply due to decreasing capital investment and policy emphasis on "anti-involution" [1] - The overall profitability of the petrochemical industry is under pressure, but there is a strong willingness among companies to improve profitability, which may positively influence market expectations for valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The article reports that U.S. refined oil demand is down 1.1% year-on-year, with gasoline demand also decreasing by 1.6% [2][10] - OPEC's monthly report predicts a recovery in the global economy in the second half of the year, with Brazil, China, and India performing better than expected [2] - The article notes that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 340,000 barrels [2][10] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market saw an increase in major indices, with the social services sector leading gains and steel sector lagging [3][8] - The financing balance in the capital market increased by 4.94 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments [3] - The article suggests that A-shares offer high investment value, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3] Group 4 - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing inventory pressure, with glass production inventory decreasing by 970,000 boxes, while soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons [4][14] - The article emphasizes the need for time to digest the current inventory levels in both glass and soda ash markets due to poor production profits [4][14] Group 5 - The article mentions that the maximum electricity load in China has reached a new record of 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 5.5 million kilowatts compared to last year [7] - The article highlights the importance of China's role in the global supply chain and its commitment to ensuring stability and cooperation in the industry [6]