Counterpoint Research·2025-07-17 01:25Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act marks a significant turning point in the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market, signaling the end of federal EV incentives, which will compel automakers to quickly adjust their strategies to maintain momentum in EV development [2][13][15]. Group 1: Impact of Policy Changes - The cancellation of federal subsidies for EVs is expected to severely affect consumer demand, particularly for foreign automakers like Hyundai-Kia and Volkswagen, compared to domestic brands [2][3]. - The Biden administration's previous incentives led to a more than 50% year-on-year increase in EV sales in 2023, raising the market share of EVs in U.S. passenger car sales from 7% in 2022 to 10% in 2023 [3][5]. - The upcoming end of federal EV tax credits is anticipated to create a short-term spike in sales as consumers rush to take advantage of the incentives before they expire [5][13]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts Among Automakers - Tesla may focus on clearing inventory rather than new R&D, with plans to launch an affordable EV priced below $25,000 in early 2026 to regain market share [5][9]. - General Motors is likely to shift its focus from EVs to hybrid vehicles to manage short-term risks, despite having invested heavily in its EV product line [9][10]. - Ford is expected to reassess its EV strategy due to high battery costs and diminishing subsidies, potentially prioritizing profitable hybrid and gasoline models [9][10]. Group 3: Challenges for New Entrants - Startups like Rivian and Lucid, which rely on high-end pricing, may face significant challenges without federal support, making it difficult to attract buyers and sustain growth [6][9]. - Some states continue to offer local incentives, such as Colorado's $2,500 rebate for EV purchases, which may provide some relief to consumers [6][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The shift in policy is likely to create a more polarized market, where companies with strong hybrid lineups or global EV platforms may adapt and benefit, while others may need to scale back ambitions [13][15]. - Economic uncertainty and the loss of financial incentives could suppress demand in the short term, particularly in the mass market, potentially delaying the adoption of EVs and altering brand strategies in the U.S. market [13][15].