独家洞察 | 鲍威尔或存闪辞可能，美联储要变天？

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is attempting to challenge Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by accusing him of mismanagement regarding the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has reportedly exceeded by approximately $700 million, likening it to the extravagance of the Palace of Versailles [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Controversy - The White House budget director, Russell Vought, has claimed that the renovation project includes luxurious features such as a rooftop garden, VIP kitchen, and high-quality marble, which has led to accusations of severe mismanagement [1]. - In response, the Federal Reserve clarified that there is no new VIP restaurant, the "garden terrace" is merely a lawn, and the "new water feature" has been canceled, attributing cost increases to structural adjustments, rising material and labor costs, and unforeseen issues like asbestos [3]. Group 2: Powell's Position and Potential Resignation - Following the renovation controversy, reports suggest that Powell may be considering resignation due to the pressure from the Trump administration regarding the renovation project [3][4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that the process for selecting Powell's successor has already begun, suggesting a potential shift in leadership at the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - Deutsche Bank's global forex strategy head, George Saravelos, warned that if Trump successfully forces Powell out, it would represent a significant but underestimated financial risk, potentially leading to a massive withdrawal of global funds and a severe blow to the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Saravelos predicts that such an event could result in a 3%-4% drop in the trade-weighted dollar index within 24 hours and a spike in U.S. Treasury yields by 30-40 basis points, creating sustained pressure on the dollar and bonds [5]. - ING's strategy team echoed similar concerns, stating that while the likelihood of Powell's early departure is low, if it occurs, it could steepen the Treasury yield curve and create a "toxic combination" for the dollar, benefiting currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc [5]. Group 4: Summary of the Situation - Trump is leveraging the renovation budget issue to undermine Powell's authority and pave the way for his own nominee, while Powell has invited oversight to address the allegations [6]. - Although the market has not reacted significantly yet, institutions like Deutsche Bank and ING warn that escalation could lead to severe volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets, triggering a chain reaction in the global financial system [6].