雪球·2025-07-17 07:51Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market in the first half of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both rising over 22%, driven by continuous inflow of southbound funds, strategic revaluation of Chinese assets, and systematic improvement in the quality of listed companies [2][12]. Group 1: Tencent Holdings - Tencent's core competitiveness lies in its monopolistic social ecosystem (WeChat has over 1.3 billion users) and continuous investment in technology (annual R&D expenditure exceeds 60 billion) [2][3]. - The WeChat ecosystem has formed a closed loop of "payment-content-mini programs-games," and the acceleration of AI technology in various scenarios enhances its competitive moat [2]. - Current valuation (dynamic P/E ratio around 23 times) is significantly lower than international giants like Meta, indicating clear room for recovery [3]. Group 2: Alibaba - Alibaba builds its moat through a dual-engine model of e-commerce and cloud computing, with Taobao/Tmall as the domestic e-commerce foundation and Alibaba Cloud leading in the Asia-Pacific market [4]. - Despite facing competition from Pinduoduo and Douyin, Alibaba's supply chain integration capabilities and global layout remain advantageous [4]. - Current valuation (P/E ratio around 16 times) reflects market concerns over short-term competitive pressures, but AI commercialization and global expansion could lead to valuation re-rating [4]. Group 3: Meituan - Meituan's core competitiveness is its high market share in local life services (over 60% in food delivery) and its infrastructure for instant retail (98% delivery within 30 minutes) [5][6]. - The moat is derived from high-frequency demand, data-driven scheduling algorithms, and deep merchant engagement [5]. - Future growth points include AI-driven operational efficiency and new business synergies, despite short-term competition from Douyin [6]. Group 4: Kuaishou - Kuaishou's core competitiveness is its high penetration in lower-tier markets (over 40% of users) and strong monetization ability in live-streaming e-commerce [7]. - The moat is characterized by user stickiness and supply chain integration capabilities [7]. - Current valuation (P/E ratio around 18 times) reflects market concerns over user growth slowdown and competition from Douyin, but AI technology could enhance content recommendation efficiency [7]. Group 5: Investment Priorities - Recommended order: Tencent ≥ Meituan > Alibaba > Kuaishou [8]. - Tencent is the top choice due to its high certainty in recovery from gaming and advertising, along with a high margin of safety in valuation [8]. - Meituan shows potential as a dark horse due to its global replication ability in instant retail and significant cost reductions through technology [9]. - Alibaba's performance needs to be monitored for cloud growth, with a target price of 150 indicating potential upside [10]. - Kuaishou has high elasticity but also high volatility, dependent on the progress of AI commercialization [11].