【广发宏观贺骁束】7月经济初窥

Group 1 - The industrial sector's operating rate remains strong during the off-season, with high operating rates in upstream industries and increased electricity consumption due to high temperatures. As of the second week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the coking industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points [1][7][9] - The retail growth rate of passenger cars has slightly declined due to a high base from the previous year. From July 1 to 13, retail sales of passenger cars grew by 7% year-on-year, down from 15% previously, while wholesale sales increased by 34% [2][9][10] - The sales growth of major home appliances showed a significant rebound in the first week of July, followed by a slight decline in the second week. Online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines from June 30 to July 6 were 63.1%, 7.3%, and 10.0% year-on-year, respectively [2][10][11] Group 2 - Container throughput and TRVSDCVN data for Sino-American shipping have slowed compared to June. From June 30 to July 13, the average container throughput at domestic ports increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 4.6% in June [3][12] - The funding situation for housing construction projects has stabilized, while infrastructure funding and physical workload still lack a clear trend. As of July 15, the national construction site funding arrival rate was 58.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2 percentage points [4][13][14] - The real estate sales continue to show a weakening trend since April. As of July 16, the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities fell by 24.2% year-on-year [4][17] Group 3 - Domestic pricing of bulk commodities has risen under the "anti-involution" expectation, with strong performance in black commodities like coking coal and rebar. The price of lithium carbonate and the photovoltaic industry index have also improved [4][18][19] - The overall economic data for July indicates that the most active sectors remain in "two new" areas, while real estate sales are a significant factor to watch as they show signs of deceleration [5][6][19]