对冲研投·2025-07-17 12:25Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the abnormal price surge in the polysilicon market, driven by oligopolistic market structures and policy signals, raising concerns about systemic risks in the industry [3][33]. Group 1: Market Structure and Pricing Dynamics - The polysilicon market is characterized by a significant oligopoly, with the top five companies in China accounting for 70.3% of global production in 2024 [4][5]. - Tongwei Co., as the industry leader, holds a 25% market share, followed by GCL-Poly (15%), Daqo New Energy (11%), Xinte Energy (10%), and Hoshine Silicon Industry (6%) [4][5]. - Despite a severe oversupply, polysilicon prices surged by 30% in July 2025, reflecting a collective response from leading firms to policy signals rather than genuine supply-demand improvements [6][13]. Group 2: Policy Evolution and Challenges - The "anti-involution" policy aimed to curb low-price competition and promote high-quality development but has evolved into a mechanism for price collusion among leading firms [8][20]. - Initial discussions in 2024 about self-regulation and production cuts yielded limited results, leading to increased administrative involvement in 2025 [11][12]. - The policy's execution faced challenges, including disagreements on capacity storage and limited room for further production cuts due to already low operating rates [16][17]. Group 3: Industry Chain Imbalances - The price surge has disrupted the price transmission mechanism within the industry, with polysilicon prices rising by 30% while downstream products like silicon wafers only increased by 14% [22][23]. - Inventory disparities exist, with polysilicon stocks at three months' usage while silicon wafer inventories are critically low [25][26]. - The high polysilicon prices have begun to suppress end-user demand, particularly in distributed solar markets, leading to pessimistic installation forecasts for the second half of 2025 [28]. Group 4: Systemic Risks and Recommendations - The abnormal price increases pose risks of a supply chain breakdown, with potential production cuts across the industry as downstream firms resist high polysilicon prices [29][30]. - The financial derivatives market for polysilicon is also at risk, with structural issues potentially leading to liquidity crises [30][31]. - Recommendations include refining the "anti-involution" policy to ensure it promotes genuine market stability rather than price manipulation, and encouraging technological advancements to lower costs [35][36].