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中金:如果美联储关键官员提前离职,如何交易?
中金点睛·2025-07-17 23:49

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies and fiscal strategies [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed's monetary policy not aligning with his "big fiscal" plans [2]. - The "Big Beautiful Plan" passed on July 4 is expected to increase federal debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, potentially rising to $5.5 trillion if temporary tax cuts are made permanent [2]. - The projected deficit rate during Trump's second term could remain around 6.5%-7%, with the Treasury expected to issue approximately $1.2 trillion in net debt in Q3, leading to potential liquidity tightening [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Dismissing the Fed Chair - The rules regarding the dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman by the President are ambiguous, with the Chairman serving a 4-year term but as a board member for 14 years [4]. - Historical instances show that while four Fed Chairs have resigned under political pressure, there has been no direct dismissal by a President [4]. - The Supreme Court has affirmed the Fed's unique structure and independence, indicating that the President cannot dismiss the Chairman due to policy disagreements [4]. Group 3: Historical Challenges to Fed Independence - The Fed's independence has faced significant challenges historically, notably during the Great Depression and the Nixon administration, where political pressures led to a loss of monetary policy control [6]. - The article notes that during periods of fiscal dominance, such as the 60s and 70s, the Fed's independence was notably weakened, with higher inflation tolerated under political pressure [6]. Group 4: Implications of Potential Fed Chair Departure - If the Fed Chair were to leave early, it could negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold prices, with historical precedents showing a weakening dollar and rising gold prices following similar events [8]. - The article suggests that if the current Fed Chair completes their term, the anticipated issuance of $1.2 trillion in debt could still lead to liquidity pressures, prompting the Fed to restart quantitative easing, benefiting both the stock market and gold [8].