中金 | AI十年展望（二十四）：AI Agent元年已至，应用拐点或将到来

Core Viewpoint - The AI Agent industry is expected to mature significantly by 2025, with the potential to create a complete commercial ecosystem around AI applications, driven by advancements in large models and the development of AI Agents [1]. Group 1: Technology and Product Development - The AI Agent technology framework is becoming clearer, consisting of foundational large models, various tools, and supporting infrastructure [4][12]. - The core components of AI Agents are the underlying large models and tools, which enable the execution of complex tasks [12]. - The current AI Agent products are still evolving, but a basic framework for future general-purpose AI Agents is forming, with 2025 being identified as the "Year of the Agent" [9][20]. Group 2: Market Segmentation - C-end Agents focus on general intelligence and user needs, aiming for standardized products that can reach a broad audience [4][36]. - B-end Agents emphasize integration with specific business scenarios, with companies like Microsoft and Salesforce leading the way in commercializing these solutions [5][37]. Group 3: Commercialization Trends - The commercialization of C-end Agents is more about establishing user engagement and market presence, while B-end Agents are seeing gradual adoption in specific enterprise applications [39][44]. - The global commercialization of AI Agents is progressing faster in overseas markets compared to domestic ones, with significant revenue growth observed in companies like OpenAI and Anthropic [43][52]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The AI Agent industry is anticipated to reach a tipping point as general-purpose products emerge, unlocking long-term market potential [45][59]. - The increasing complexity and length of tasks that AI Agents can handle indicate a trend towards more sophisticated applications, potentially leading to self-generating ecosystems in the future [32][59].