Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in bank stocks, exploring the underlying reasons and future sustainability of this trend, focusing on asset allocation, funding dynamics, and the stability of bank earnings [1][5]. Group 1: Recent Rise in Bank Stocks - The rise in Chinese bank stocks can be attributed to three main factors: balance sheet repair, profit improvement, and a leverage bull market. The current phase is characterized by balance sheet repair, driven by the progress in financial risk management [2][6]. - The improvement in asset quality is evident, with a notable decrease in the net bad debt generation rate, indicating healthier balance sheets and a corresponding increase in valuations [2][10]. - The market perception of bank stocks has shifted, recognizing their earnings stability rather than traditional cyclical volatility, which has led to increased investment from various financial institutions [3][4]. Group 2: Funding Dynamics and Asset Allocation - The "asset shortage" phenomenon has driven a shift in funding allocation towards high-dividend assets, including bank stocks, as investors seek to compensate for low yields in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4]. - Insurance companies and asset management companies are increasingly investing in bank stocks due to their stable dividend yields, which meet their asset allocation needs [4][9]. - The comparison of bank stocks with other sectors reveals that banks offer a unique combination of high dividend yields and large market capitalization, making them attractive to institutional investors [4][9]. Group 3: Future Sustainability and Growth Potential - The sustainability of the recent rise in bank stocks is supported by their current valuation levels, which remain below historical averages, suggesting that there is still room for growth [6][7]. - The convergence of dividend yields among different types of banks indicates a trend towards stability and reduced risk premiums, enhancing the attractiveness of bank stocks [6][12]. - The potential for further appreciation in bank stock prices is linked to successful debt restructuring and improved investor confidence in the sustainability of smaller banks [6][7]. Group 4: Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to H-shares over A-shares due to tax advantages for insurance investments and higher dividend yields in the Hong Kong market [9]. - Stocks with high and stable dividend yields, particularly from large banks, are favored for their consistent profit expectations [9]. - The selection of bank stocks should also consider performance stability, which is influenced by factors such as liability capacity and organizational efficiency [9].
中金：系统梳理银行股投资