兴业证券王涵 | 长钱的问题如何解决?

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for "long money" in China's economy as it transitions from traditional growth models to new engines like advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green energy [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's economy is undergoing a critical period of transitioning from old to new growth drivers, with traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate showing diminishing returns [1]. - Strategic emerging industries, characterized by long R&D cycles, rapid technological iterations, and significant capital expenditures, are becoming the new growth engines [1]. Group 2: Long-term Capital Supply - Compared to the U.S., the supply of "long money" from the private sector in China is currently limited, primarily due to the wealth accumulation being heavily reliant on real estate growth over the past two decades [1]. - As of 2022, over 90% of Chinese residents' total assets were accumulated from 2005 to 2022, with 41.9% of this increase attributed to urban housing asset growth [1]. Group 3: Market Support and Valuation - The Central Huijin Investment Company has entered the market to address the "long money" issue, providing support for stock market index funds and enhancing valuation momentum [4]. - The balance of the central bank's loans to financial companies increased significantly from 659.4 billion yuan at the end of March to 1.03 trillion yuan at the end of April, reflecting the market support during global market disruptions [4]. Group 4: Profit Expectations and Economic Confidence - The entry of long-term funds like Central Huijin has alleviated market downside risks, but a substantial improvement in profit expectations is necessary for the stock market to break upward [5]. - Confidence in China's medium to long-term economic growth is crucial, with new urbanization and industrialization processes showing a slowdown in their effects on economic growth [5]. Group 5: Globalization and Long-term Growth - Globalization is expected to enhance China's long-term growth outlook, although its benefits will take time to materialize [5]. - Deepening integration with global markets will allow China's efficient industrial capacity to meet broader global demand, supporting the transition from a "manufacturing giant" to a "manufacturing powerhouse" [5].