年初报告 《特朗普2.0：财政视角——经济每月谈第九期》 中，笔者曾指出：特朗普政府执政以来一系列非常规政策操作的核心逻辑在于应对财政困境，即 在存量债务压力之下，为维系美国经济增长，亟需解决的核心问题是财政问题。近期特朗普的一系列动作指向其所面临的这一财政压力似有阶段性缓解迹 象。然而，也需注意到，这种短期压力的缓解是以损害美国自二战以来积累的对外软实力为代价的。 特朗普政府近期多项举措共同作用，暂时缓解了短期财政压力。 推动法案通过，打开财政空间。 通过外交战略调整获取共和党建制派支持，促使"大而美"法案最终获批。此举不仅解决了特朗普亟需的上一任期减税政策延 期问题，更将债务上限提高5万亿美元。这意味着，美国依靠增发债务支撑短期经济增长的模式得以延续。 关税收入补充财源。 尽管"大而美"法案顺利通过，但也曾加剧部分市场参与者对美国财政赤字进一步扩大的担忧。而近期美国与多个主要经济体达成的新关 税协议有望部分缓解这一担忧。Tax Foundation预测，新的关税措施可能在未来十年带来约2.1万亿美元的额外关税收入。 "纳贡式"协议提高外部收入预期。 除提高关税外，欧洲、日本、韩国等经济体已"承诺"大幅增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing restructuring of global supply chains post-2020, characterized by "localization," "nearshoring/regionalization," and "friendshoring," with a focus on recent marginal changes in these trends [1][5]. Group 1: Global FDI Trends - Since 2022, global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) growth has been weak, with a 17% year-on-year decline in 2022, followed by modest increases of 5% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, indicating a persistent sluggish trend [7]. - The UNCTAD report highlights that the first quarter of 2025 will see historical lows in global transaction volumes and project announcements due to heightened policy uncertainty from a new round of tariff wars [7]. - The decline in FDI growth is primarily attributed to a significant contraction in merger and acquisition investments, which fell from $759.2 billion in 2021 to $387.1 billion in 2023, despite a projected 14% recovery in 2024 [7]. Group 2: Greenfield Investment Insights - Greenfield investments surged to a historical high of $1.4 trillion in 2023 but are expected to decline by 5% in 2024 while remaining at relatively high levels [7][11]. - The article notes a clear trend of greenfield investments shifting towards developed economies, particularly the U.S., which saw a 77% increase in greenfield investment in 2024, reaching its highest level since 2003 [14][11]. - In contrast, Western Europe experienced a decline in greenfield investments, with a 15% drop in 2023 and a further 1% decrease in 2024 [14]. Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Dynamics - The article identifies a regional differentiation in greenfield investments, with the U.S. accelerating while Western Europe and parts of Asia show signs of slowing down [11][12]. - In the Americas, greenfield investments remain robust, with North America experiencing a 59% increase and Latin America and the Caribbean seeing a 19% rise in 2024 [17]. - India continues to attract significant greenfield investments, averaging a growth rate of 110% since 2022, driven by its young labor force and independent geographical position [18]. Group 4: Industry Concentration - The restructuring of global supply chains has led to a concentration of investments in the electronics, energy, and resource sectors, with these industries collectively accounting for over 60% of greenfield investments from 2022 to 2024 [20][21]. - The demand for logistics and warehousing investments peaked in 2022, while energy and resource investments have shown mixed trends, with mining investments declining due to stabilized resource prices [21]. - Technological advancements are driving increased investments in the semiconductor and communication sectors, with a 73% rise in information and communication investments and a 140% increase in semiconductor investments in 2024 [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the transition of the A-share market from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven growth, suggesting that lessons can be learned from the U.S. stock market experience, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" policy [1][6][12] - Recent strong performance in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including proactive fiscal policies, reasonable monetary liquidity, and initial successes of the "anti-involution" actions, which have boosted market confidence [6][12] - The article highlights that while the current focus is on the improvement of corporate profits through domestic policies, the experience of the U.S. capital market during economic slowdowns provides valuable insights [1][7][12] Group 2 - U.S. corporate profits have shown resilience and have decoupled from domestic economic growth, with S&P 500 earnings per share growth averaging 5.32% from 2010 to 2019, compared to a mere 2.40% growth in the U.S. economy during the same period [7][8] - The globalized revenue structure of U.S. companies, with 41% of S&P 500 companies' revenues coming from outside the U.S., has helped mitigate the impact of domestic economic fluctuations [8][9] - The openness of the U.S. market has attracted numerous international companies, allowing U.S. investors to benefit from global economic growth, which contrasts with the more localized nature of other developed markets like Germany [11][12] Group 3 - For Chinese companies, enhancing global operations and diversifying revenue sources is crucial, as many leading firms have yet to fully capitalize on international markets [12] - The A-share market can benefit from increased openness and international connectivity, such as through mechanisms like the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, to attract global "hard tech" companies and share in global industry dividends [12] - The dual drivers of corporate globalization and market openness are expected to be key factors in the growth of profits and the revaluation of the Chinese stock market, fostering a positive interaction with long-term economic resilience [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for "long money" in China's economy as it transitions from traditional growth models to new engines like advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green energy [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's economy is undergoing a critical period of transitioning from old to new growth drivers, with traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate showing diminishing returns [1]. - Strategic emerging industries, characterized by long R&D cycles, rapid technological iterations, and significant capital expenditures, are becoming the new growth engines [1]. Group 2: Long-term Capital Supply - Compared to the U.S., the supply of "long money" from the private sector in China is currently limited, primarily due to the wealth accumulation being heavily reliant on real estate growth over the past two decades [1]. - As of 2022, over 90% of Chinese residents' total assets were accumulated from 2005 to 2022, with 41.9% of this increase attributed to urban housing asset growth [1]. Group 3: Market Support and Valuation - The Central Huijin Investment Company has entered the market to address the "long money" issue, providing support for stock market index funds and enhancing valuation momentum [4]. - The balance of the central bank's loans to financial companies increased significantly from 659.4 billion yuan at the end of March to 1.03 trillion yuan at the end of April, reflecting the market support during global market disruptions [4]. Group 4: Profit Expectations and Economic Confidence - The entry of long-term funds like Central Huijin has alleviated market downside risks, but a substantial improvement in profit expectations is necessary for the stock market to break upward [5]. - Confidence in China's medium to long-term economic growth is crucial, with new urbanization and industrialization processes showing a slowdown in their effects on economic growth [5]. Group 5: Globalization and Long-term Growth - Globalization is expected to enhance China's long-term growth outlook, although its benefits will take time to materialize [5]. - Deepening integration with global markets will allow China's efficient industrial capacity to meet broader global demand, supporting the transition from a "manufacturing giant" to a "manufacturing powerhouse" [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the evolution of Trump's foreign policy since taking office, dividing it into three distinct phases: "100 Days New Policy," "Focused Offensive," and the current phase marked by the Israel-Iran conflict, highlighting the internal conflicts within the Trump administration and the balancing act between establishment Republicans and MAGA supporters [1][2][3]. Phase Evolution: From Comprehensive Strike to Budget Priority - The first phase, "100 Days New Policy," was characterized by a comprehensive approach to foreign policy, attempting to extract resources externally but yielding limited results [6]. - The second phase, starting from May 1 to mid-June, saw a shift to a "Focused Offensive" led by establishment figures, with a strategic focus on isolating Iran through alliances with Arab nations and economic support for Syria [2][9]. - The third phase began in mid-June with the Israel-Iran conflict, where Trump attempted to balance the conflicting interests of establishment Republicans and MAGA supporters [3][12]. Transition to "Focused Offensive" and Underlying Reasons - The transition to a "Focused Offensive" was marked by the appointment of Marco Rubio as National Security Advisor, consolidating power within the establishment [8]. - The shift was driven by the ineffectiveness of the previous comprehensive strategy and the urgent need to pass budget and tax legislation, necessitating cooperation with establishment Republicans [11]. Israel-Iran Conflict Initiating the Third Phase - The Israel-Iran conflict escalated following Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, revealing deepening internal divisions within the Trump administration regarding military involvement [13][14]. - Trump's "tightrope" strategy involved quick military strikes against Iran while simultaneously pushing for a ceasefire, reflecting the administration's multiple dilemmas [15]. Outlook and Implications - The potential for a phase of strategic contraction in U.S. foreign policy following the ceasefire, with concerns that establishment Republicans may instigate new conflicts [17]. - Key observation points for the ongoing power struggle between Trump and establishment Republicans include the progress of the 2026 fiscal budget and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [18]. - The U.S. strategic contraction may lead to reduced concerns over U.S. debt financing and create a "stabilizing window" for Chinese foreign trade, as the focus shifts to domestic fiscal legislation [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The speech emphasizes the importance of leveraging multi-tiered capital markets to promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation in China [1] Group 1: Formation of Positive Cycles - A positive cycle has formed between technology, capital, and industry, with private equity and venture capital funds playing a crucial role in supporting technology companies' access to capital markets. In 2024, A-share listed companies accounted for over 50% of the total R&D investment in society, holding one-third of the national patent total [2] - A positive cycle has also developed between technology companies and investors, with the capital market increasingly supporting technological innovation. The total amount of dividends and buybacks from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market exceeded 730 billion yuan in the past five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.5% in revenue for listed companies in the new generation information technology sector [2] Group 2: Addressing Existing Imperfections - The financial service system in China faces three key imperfections: the capital formation mechanism not aligning with innovation laws, the product service system failing to meet the financial needs of technology companies throughout their lifecycle, and the incentive and constraint mechanisms for innovation being inadequate [3] - Five targeted measures were proposed to address these issues, including enhancing the role of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a testing ground, strengthening the linkage between equity and debt, cultivating patient and long-term capital, supporting the quality of technology-oriented listed companies, and creating a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem [3] Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - China is currently in a strategic opportunity period for both technological and capital market development, with its economic strength ranking among the top globally. The ongoing reforms in the capital market are expected to enhance support for technological innovation, thereby promoting a virtuous cycle among technology, capital, and industry [4] - The speech outlines the direction and path for deepening capital market reforms, which will not only help China secure a favorable position in global technological competition but also provide strong momentum for high-quality economic development [4]

从四股势力的视角看"百日新政2.0"。 战略上，"俄乌->胡赛->关税"顺序符合"阻力最小原则"。其中，调停俄乌冲突满足多方要求、阻力最小，成为本届美国政府外 交首选项。空袭胡赛武装支持与反对声音相当，该举措符合共和党建制派、犹太金融资本的利益，但与科技右翼、MAGA群体的主张相违。而近期发动的关税战不 符合MAGA派之外其他三股势力的利益。但战术层面执行力不足，导致"百日新政2.0"进退维谷。美乌矿产协议签约生变，削弱美对盟友影响力。同时，俄乌调停僵 局下，特朗普急于出政绩，接连发动空袭、关税战，均暴露本届美国政府在战术执行层面严重的能力不足。 唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次就任美国总统近百日，其"百日新政2.0"举措对国际体系造成极大负面冲击，在金融市场也引发轩然大波。但从美国国家 利益视角看，特朗普频繁"出牌"收获的实质性政绩很少，背后究竟是特朗普政府的能力问题，还是美国自身更深层次的问题，是本系列报告探讨的重点。作为 首篇，本报告将从特朗普背后的四股势力入手，探寻其施政逻辑，并对后续特朗普政府可能的"出牌"进行推演。 最近变化与对未来的推演。 一是四股势力在内阁影响力或生变。马斯克重心 ...

特朗普重返白宫一个多月以来，其政策对美国国内外产生了巨大的冲击。一方面，特朗普以"提升政府效率"为由，对内加剧党争，试图削弱民主党及华盛顿传 统官僚体系的影响力。另一方面，在对外政策上，特朗普不断强化"美国优先"，不仅对墨西哥、巴拿马等传统势力范围施压，还向加拿大和丹麦提出领土要 求。与此同时，特朗普还改变了拜登政府"联欧抗俄"的地缘政治战略。笔者认为，要理解特朗普的上述行事逻辑，需先明确美国当前面临的几个事实。 美国当前面临的现实：实力今不如昔，内部矛盾日益激化。 美国经济长期"脱实向虚"，其工业产值在全球占比已回落至12%。制造业"硬实力"的衰落，使其对外进 行地缘干预的能力减弱，进而动摇其引以为傲的盟友体系。此外，长期滥用金融霸权不断透支美元和美债体系的信用，"AI霸权"的叙事体系也在其他国家追赶中出 现裂痕。而软硬实力衰退的结果，是其向外输出矛盾的能力减弱，加速了美国国内社会撕裂的显性化。 特朗普看似强硬，但可能只是在唱"空城计"。 本届美国政府对内试图营造"特朗普治下美国一直赢"的叙事体系，发动MAGA力量压制政治对手。对外维持"美国依 然第一"的叙事体系，"软饭硬吃、榨取盟友利益"来兑现地缘利益。 ...

要点 历史经验：制造业强国支撑世界秩序稳定。 从历史经验来看，自工业革命以来，工业第一大国从来都是世界 秩序的"定海神针"。19世纪的英国凭借其强大的工业实力，建立了日不落帝国，主导了全球贸易和金融体系， 确立了金本位制，成为世界秩序的塑造者。20世纪的美国，通过其庞大的工业产能和技术创新，在第二次世界 大战后建立起布雷顿森林体系，确立美元霸权，主导全球经济秩序长达半个多世纪。 中国硬实力全球领先，与南方国家经济互补。 中国已成为全球制造业第一大国，工业规模远超世界其他国 家。同时，中国的工业能力正在为全球经济发展提供新动能。而南方国家的工业化和城镇化进程与中国形成显 著互补。 文化影响力加速扩张，软实力崛起进入快车道。 春节期间中国电影市场的火爆表现，彻底打破了2024年市场 流传的"中国电影市场萎靡"的悲观论调。以《黑神话》、《哪吒》为代表的中国游戏、电影受到年轻一代的追 捧，同时也向全世界展现中国文化、讲述中国故事。中国电影产业的快速发展，正在重塑全球文化格局。而随 着文化产业的蓬勃发展，中国软实力提升进入快车道。 80、90后群体助力中国软硬实力提升。 80、90后作为改革开放后成长起来的第一代，已成 ...

特朗普作为美国新一届总统，"不当家不知柴米贵"，财政问题将是其新任期的重要考量。本文试图从财政角度，审视特朗普提出的新一届任期 的政策。 特朗普的四大节流方向：医改、停战、DOGE、非法移民。 从节流的角度来看，财政支出中国防和卫生健康方面的占比较高，可能是省钱的 重点。因此，一是可能对奥巴马医改进行重大改革，降低联邦政府对于医保的支出。二是通过停战，降低美国对外军事援助的费用。三是整顿 吏治，成立政府效率部，通过提高政府效率来削减预算开支。四是驱逐非法移民，拜登期间大规模非法移民的涌入造成了财政负担，控制非法 移民进入可能会缓解相关的财政压力。 若开源和节流进展不顺，特朗普有Plan B——加密货币。 如果前述财政举措落地不顺，财政赤字仍然明显上升，可能会对美元信心及其全球地 位带来冲击。那么不排除特朗普可能会借力比特币来对美元进行增信。近期特朗普已经表达了对比特币的支持，并称会让财政部持有比特币。 风险提示： 美国政策不确定性，地缘政治风险，全球经济金融风险 。 正文 特朗普2.0的政策重点——财政 特朗普2.0政策围绕财政问题展开，其中，财政刺激主要体现在对内大规模减税。根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO） ...