美国突袭委内瑞拉，短期内取得了超预期的 战术 成果。对特朗普来说，这有助于缓解此前不断上升的 内外双重压力。 后续需重点关注两大方向：一是委内瑞拉国内大选走向，二是地缘风险的跨区域联动效应（特别是中 东、俄乌、南亚、东亚方向）。 该事件对中国经济直接冲击有限，但间接风险仍需警惕。 大类资产方面，油价、黄金或呈现 "短空长多"，美元则大概率呈现 "短多长空" 态势。 要点 战略角度，美国此次行动本质是 战略 退却中的 "以攻为守" 。 但战术成功难改战略劣势 ，各国将进入 "以智力相雄长" 阶段。在这样的格局下，中国作为断档式的世界第一大工业国，我们对其经济和金融 市场应保持战略层面的信心。 风险提示：国内外经济政策不确定性，地缘政治风险，全球经济金融风险。 正文 感谢各位投资者在节日期间拨冗参加本次电话会议。本次会议的主题，是元旦期间美国出兵 绑架委内瑞拉马杜罗总统这一地缘政治黑天鹅事件。我将围绕两方面展开讨论：一是委内瑞 拉局势后续可能的变化；二是结合我们 12 月 30 日发布的 《2026年潜在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》 报 告，分享对本次事件后续影响的深度研判。 首先要指出的是，此次美国行动的迅速成功超出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the need for market participants to pay attention to potential geopolitical "black swan" events that could significantly impact global asset prices by 2026 [1][7]. Geopolitical Risks - The risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a full-scale confrontation between Russia and Europe is increasing, driven by Russia's battlefield advantages and heightened concerns among Eastern European countries [9]. - The fragile peace in the Middle East and the Caucasus region poses a risk of renewed conflict, particularly with Israel potentially seeking decisive action to ensure its security amid a strategic U.S. withdrawal [14]. - The strategic balance in the South Asian subcontinent is under threat, as the U.S. shifts its focus away from the Indo-Pacific, potentially diminishing India's strategic value and increasing the likelihood of conflict with Pakistan [17]. - Domestic political risks in the U.S. are rising, particularly concerning Trump, as internal support fractures and external pressures mount, which could lead to increased political instability [22]. - Opportunistic strategic risks in the Asia-Pacific region may arise as the U.S. reduces its strategic presence, encouraging countries like Japan and the Philippines to take more adventurous actions [24]. - The rise of "new Monroe Doctrine" in South America could disrupt global trade and supply chains, as the U.S. seeks to assert its dominance in the region, increasing geopolitical risks [25]. Investment Recommendations - Despite the identified geopolitical risks, China's economic resilience and policy stability are viewed as crucial stabilizing factors for the global market [28]. - Investors are advised to establish a geopolitical risk monitoring framework, increase allocations to safe-haven assets like gold and the renminbi, and focus on regions that may benefit from uncertainty, particularly those closely linked to the Chinese economy [29].

长期以来，市场对宏大叙事与资产价格的关系存在争议。投资者常问："地缘秩序变化与我的投资组合有什么关系？"然而，2025年的市场表现给出了明确 答案：宏大叙事已不再是遥远的政治话题，而是直接驱动资产价格结构性变化的底层逻辑。本报告聚焦三个核心问题：全球金融市场已发生的重要结构性 变化；支撑这些变化的底层宏观叙事；尚未在金融市场中完全体现的宏观叙事变化。 全球金融市场正在发生的 五个 结构性变化。 这些变化突破过往市场规律，提示"事情在发生变化"。一是美元相较实物资产明显贬值；二是传统避险资产 ——日元、美元等的抗风险属性正在下降；三是中国经济增长未明显加速，但A股表现亮眼；四是全球股市交易呈现"中美双极"格局；五是新兴市场主权 债的风险溢价正在明显回落，如中国成功发行无溢价美元主权债券等。 变化背后的 三大 宏观叙事：多极秩序正重塑市场底层逻辑。 上述叙事尚未被市场充分定价：至少有 四条主线 值得关注。 风险提示： 全球地缘政治变局加速演进；全球经济、政策不确定性上升。 正文 长期以来，市场对宏大叙事与资产价格的关系存在争议。投资者常问："地缘秩序变化与我的投资组合有什么关系？" 然而，2025年的市场表现给出 ...

三是会议明确了"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调。 在政策目标方面，会议将"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期"作为重要目标，体现了政策的多维平衡和系统性思维，旨在通过稳定微观主体来夯实宏观经济 基础。在应对经济的供需矛盾方面，会议强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量"，这一 表述明确了解决供强需弱矛盾的双向路径，既注重需求侧管理，也强调供给侧改革，体现了政策的全面 性和协调性。在货币政策方面，会议明确提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量"，这意味着货币政策将在稳增长的同时，更加关注物价水平的合理回升，为经济复苏提供适宜 的货币环境。在提升政策效能方面，会议要求"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，并将各类经济政策和非 经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，这有助于更好发挥政策的协同效应。 四是会议部署的2026年八项重点任务，特别强调逆周期和跨周期政策的有机结合。 这八项任务涵盖了 内需、创新、改革、开放、协调、绿色、民生、安全等多个维度。在内需政策方面，会议提出"深入实 施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划"，通过增加居民收入来提升消费能力，同时推动投 资 ...

美国2025年国家安全战略报告所呈现的"以退为进"，实质是在多极化浪潮中试图重新掌握主动权。对于A股投资者而言，既要警惕短期地缘波动，更应把 握全球资本再配置背景下中国资产的价值重估机遇。 要点 2025美国《国家安全战略》报告基调：表面收缩，实则迂回。 特朗普政府发布的2025年国家安全战略报告，以较大篇幅强调"将重心放回美国本土"，初 读可能给人以美国全球战略"总退却"的印象。然而，深入分析其文本脉络与政策指向，这更像是一种精心设计的"以退为进"策略。 美国对欧洲与亚太地区的"以退为进"。 风险与机遇：美国的"退"是其无奈之举。 我们应当重视这一战略带来的潜在地缘政治风险，但更应看到，这种迂回战略本身，正是美国承认单极格局不 可持续后的无奈之举。这恰恰印证了世界正加速迈向多极化格局的历史进程。 对金融市场的影响：继续看多中国股市，美股存不确定性。 三个风险提示： 风险提示： 地区冲突升级风险；美国国内政治反弹；不确定性对金融市场的冲击。 正文 2025美国《国家安全战略》报告的基本情况及基调 美国《国家安全战略》报告的基本情况。 当地时间2025年12月4日，美国白宫发布了特朗普政府第二任期内的《国家安全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD in 2023 and explores the potential for further appreciation in the coming year, driven by differing monetary policies in the US and China, as well as the gradual correction of the RMB's systemic undervaluation [2][8]. Short-term Analysis - The US is likely to adopt a passive easing monetary policy due to fiscal pressures, while China maintains a proactive and stable monetary policy, supporting the continued appreciation of the RMB against the USD [8][15]. - The US faces approximately $400 billion in additional interest burdens, which may compel the Federal Reserve to implement quantitative easing alongside interest rate cuts to alleviate fiscal pressures [9][15]. Medium-term Analysis - The RMB has been approximately 6% undervalued since 2023, with concerns about its systemic undervaluation gradually dissipating [17][20]. - The establishment of an independent cross-border payment network for the RMB, alongside the failure of US financial sanctions against Russia, has catalyzed the internationalization of the RMB [20][24]. Long-term Perspective - The changing perception of the US's hard power and its impact on soft power is expected to gradually influence currency dynamics, with the RMB's undervaluation likely to correct over time [3][26]. - The "small yard, high wall" policy of the Trump administration may further accelerate the shift in currency dynamics, undermining the dollar's role as a global transaction medium [26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the US AI sector, coupled with the widening disadvantages in key AI fields, signal potential changes in the US economy and financial markets, challenging the optimistic expectations surrounding "AI hegemony" and hinting at rising systemic risks in the financial market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - The US AI sector has cooled down, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 3% from November 3 to 7, and core AI companies like Nvidia seeing a decline of over 7% in market value [5]. - AI concept valuations have become excessively inflated, with the "Big Seven" in the US stock market accounting for approximately 35% of the S&P 500's market value, compared to only 23% during the internet bubble era [5]. - A significant 95% of investments in generative AI have yet to yield actual returns for companies, indicating substantial uncertainty behind the "AI myth" [5]. Group 2: Key Support Areas for AI Development - The four core support areas for AI development are energy, algorithms/talent, data, and computing power, where the US is facing notable disadvantages and challenges [6]. - In the energy sector, the imbalance between electricity supply and demand is a critical issue, with AI data centers driving a surge in electricity demand. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a 4% increase in electricity consumption by 2024 compared to 2019, with AI-related GPU server demand pushing data center energy consumption to 176 TWh in 2023, expected to rise to 12% of total US electricity consumption by 2028 [7][8]. - On the supply side, the US struggles to enhance its electricity infrastructure, leading to rising electricity prices, with industrial and commercial electricity prices increasing by 20% from 2019 to 2024, and residential prices by over 26% [8]. - In the talent sector, the US produces approximately 645,000 STEM graduates annually, while China exceeds 2.2 million, indicating a significant gap in high-quality talent availability [11]. - The data sector has been adversely affected by the "America First" policy, which has restricted the potential data available for AI training, limiting the US's competitive edge [14]. - In computing power, while the US currently leads with about 74% of global high-end AI computing power, this advantage may diminish due to power shortages and China's rapid advancements in AI chip production and efficiency [15]. Group 3: Market Impact - In the short term, monetary easing may provide some support against downward pressure on US stocks, but the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar is rising in the medium term [16]. - The core narrative of the US stock market is heavily reliant on the expectation of "AI hegemony," which may be challenged if doubts about the US's global dominance and the credibility of the dollar arise, potentially leading to a systemic revaluation of asset prices [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the softening of the U.S. stance towards China following the recent summit between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, attributing this shift to internal constraints faced by U.S. domestic policies, particularly the hollowing out of American manufacturing and the "decoupling" policies that have led to inflationary pressures and a decline in the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][2][19]. Group 1: Economic Challenges - The hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing has resulted in a heavy reliance on imports, making the U.S. vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and increasing costs due to tariffs, which exacerbates inflationary pressures [8][10]. - The "decoupling" policies have revealed weaknesses in U.S. hard power, undermining the dollar's status as a global currency and complicating the U.S.'s ability to maintain its military and economic influence [10][12]. Group 2: Policy Constraints - U.S. monetary and fiscal policies face significant operational constraints due to persistent inflation and declining dollar credibility, limiting the effectiveness of potential policy combinations [11][12]. - Implementing a "dual expansion" of monetary and fiscal policies could lead to heightened inflation and further depreciation of the dollar, while a "tight fiscal and loose monetary" approach may exacerbate wealth inequality and social tensions [14][15]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The inability to effectively manage these economic challenges suggests that the U.S. lacks the capacity for a prolonged economic confrontation with China, which is a fundamental reason for the softening of its stance [19].

Group 1 - The recent decline in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices marks the largest single-day drop in nearly a month, with six out of the seven major tech companies experiencing losses, leading to discussions about a potential trend reversal in the U.S. stock market [1] - The two main pillars supporting the recent bull market in the U.S. are the expectation of U.S. technological dominance in the AI era and the market's anticipation of liquidity easing due to pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve [1] - Recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and short-term liquidity tightening due to government shutdown concerns have led to a revision of expectations regarding the easing cycle [1] Group 2 - The current market turmoil may be a prelude rather than a definitive shift from bull to bear, as there is a significant likelihood that Trump will continue to pressure the Federal Reserve for rate cuts and quantitative easing [4] - Despite the short-term challenges, the narrative of U.S. AI dominance is not immediately discredited, although mid-term fundamentals may eventually challenge this view due to disadvantages in key areas such as energy infrastructure and data openness [4] - The potential for a "triple whammy" of stock, bond, and currency declines in the U.S. is increasing as the global hegemony of the U.S. is questioned, particularly if doubts about the dollar's value arise [5]

Group 1 - The current financial market and economic signals in the U.S. are mixed, with the stock market at high levels suggesting economic prosperity, while political actions indicate underlying anxiety about the economy [1][7] - The core reason for this disparity is the asymmetric impact of the current AI wave, which supports overall economic growth through capital expenditure and stock market wealth effects, while negatively affecting low-income groups [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. capital market and economic growth are highly dependent on AI, with a few leading companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google contributing significantly to the S&P 500's profit growth [2][9] - The capital expenditure of major tech companies is projected to boost U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points by Q2 2025, contributing 24% to the growth [2][13] - Excluding AI-related capital expenditures would reveal a more pronounced slowdown in economic growth [2][13] Group 3 - The U.S. economy increasingly relies on high-income households, with the top 10% of earners contributing 49.7% of consumer spending, a historical high [3][19] - The consumption stability in the U.S. economy is becoming more closely tied to stock market performance due to the high asset allocation in stocks among high-income groups [3][19] Group 4 - The AI wave has limited positive effects on low-income employment, leading to a decline in job market indicators [4][21] - The AI industry's capital-intensive nature results in low job creation, with significant employment declines in sectors like call centers and programming [4][22][27] - There is a noticeable "K-shaped" recovery in retail spending, with high-income groups seeing growth while low-income groups experience stagnation [4][33]