罕见鸽声！美联储主席候选人沃勒：7月应降息以支持劳动力市场

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut to support a weakening labor market, contrasting with other officials who believe employment remains strong [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and the risks of rising inflation are limited, suggesting that policy adjustments should focus on underlying inflation rather than tariff impacts [1][2] - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown lower-than-expected growth in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of such trends, although recent data indicates that tariffs imposed by President Trump are starting to affect prices [1][2] Group 2 - Waller notes that inflation expectations remain stable and wage growth has not accelerated, which alleviates concerns about persistent inflation, while the risks of a weakening job market have increased significantly [2] - Economic growth is slowing, with an estimated growth rate of about 1% for the first half of the year, and a continued low growth outlook is expected through the remainder of 2025 [2] - Other policymakers, including Governor Kugler and New York Fed President Williams, express concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs and prefer to delay interest rate cuts [3] Group 3 - Kugler argues that the Fed should not cut rates for some time as tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices, indicating that a tight monetary policy is still necessary to curb inflation expectations [3] - Williams anticipates that tariffs will have a more significant impact on inflation in the coming months, supporting the current tightening policy as appropriate [3] - Futures contracts suggest that investors expect the Fed to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with a slightly higher probability of a rate cut in September [3]