美联储掌门人更迭在即：一场政治与市场的博弈

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential political crisis surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who may face dismissal before the end of his term in 2026 due to pressure from President Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][27]. Group 1: Powell's Situation - Powell's probability of being dismissed has surged from 15% to 38% within two weeks, marking a significant political crisis for a sitting Fed Chair [1]. - The Trump administration has initiated the selection process for a new Fed Chair, indicating a potential power transition that could undermine the Fed's policy independence [3][27]. Group 2: Potential Successors - Kevin Hassett, the White House Chief Economic Advisor, is the leading candidate for Powell's successor, having a close relationship with Trump and aligning with his economic policies [4][6]. - Hassett faces criticism for lacking practical monetary policy experience and has the lowest support among financial professionals at 7% [7][9]. - Other candidates include Treasury Secretary Becerra (26% support), former Fed Governor Warsh (17% support), and current Fed Governor Waller (14% support) [10][12][14]. Group 3: Trump's Expectations - Trump demands that the new Fed Chair must comply with his directive to lower interest rates and align with his "MAGA economic agenda," emphasizing a quick selection process [16][18]. - Concerns arise regarding the potential political interference in monetary policy, reminiscent of past instances where political pressures led to detrimental economic outcomes [23][25]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The new Fed Chair will face significant challenges, including rising inflation due to tariffs, concerns over the Fed's independence, and a weakening economic momentum [20][21]. - The outcome of the leadership transition could have profound implications for the global financial order, particularly if Hassett's appointment leads to a politicized monetary policy [27][28].