【广发资产研究】资产配置如何应对新旧秩序切换——中国资产篇

Core Viewpoint - The current transition between old and new orders is in a "chaotic period," suggesting that a "global barbell strategy" based on an all-weather approach is recommended for portfolio construction, focusing on Chinese assets for the second half of the year [3][10][14]. Group 1: Overview of the Current Situation - The core contradiction in the domestic macroeconomic environment remains the debt cycle, with China having passed the peak of the current debt cycle and entering a contraction phase [3][27]. - The transition from "passive leverage" to "de-leveraging" is ongoing, characterized by a decrease in total debt service relative to GDP while total debt remains elevated [3][37]. Group 2: Historical Context and Credit Pulse Conditions - Historical analysis indicates that conditions triggering credit pulses during debt contraction periods include a significant easing of monetary policy, which can alleviate the debt burden on the private sector [4][38]. - The relationship between nominal GDP growth and policy interest rates serves as a leading indicator for economic conditions, with a stable or expanding gap between the two indicating potential internal demand stimulation [38][39]. Group 3: Investment Strategy for the Second Half - The focus for Chinese assets should be on maximizing the "win rate," with fixed income expected to outperform equities and commodities during the debt contraction phase [6][61]. - The strategic asset allocation should favor high dividend and high-value factors while reducing exposure to high-growth factors in the A-share market [73][74]. Group 4: Risk and Pricing Assessment - The overall pricing of Chinese assets appears reasonable, with the equity risk premium (ERP) reflecting the structural transformation of the economy [48][59]. - The current yield curve should steepen, with short-term rates expected to decline more than long-term rates, indicating better value in short-term debt [52][53].