国泰海通｜煤炭：“反内卷”务实煤价底部，当下就是拐点

Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" movement differs significantly from the supply-side reforms of 2016, focusing on a "time-for-space" strategy rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, with a pragmatic impact on the coal industry, indicating a fundamental turning point [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Strategy - The "anti-involution" concept is central to the new round of supply-side reforms, aiming to regulate low-price disorderly competition and encourage companies to enhance product quality, rather than simply eliminating outdated production capacity [1][3]. - The essence of the "anti-involution" approach is to stabilize price bottoms by alleviating chaotic competition, contrasting with the more drastic measures of 2016 that had significant economic impacts [1][3]. Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - The coal industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, highlighting the need for more mines to reduce production under the "anti-involution" policy [3]. - Supply-side data indicates a noticeable decline in national production from April to May, driven by economic factors leading to spontaneous production cuts, alongside a contraction in imports, suggesting a stable yet decreasing total supply for the year [3]. - Demand-side observations show a recovery in electricity consumption growth rates, with residential electricity usage increasing by 7% and 9.6% in April and May, respectively, indicating a potential turning point for overall electricity demand growth [3].