国泰海通｜产业：低空经济系列（八）：从Joby和Archer看国内eVTOL产业

Core Viewpoint - Joby and Archer are leading companies in the global eVTOL industry, with their growth paths significantly influenced by the mature aviation ecosystem in the United States, making it challenging to replicate their success in the domestic market. However, key experiences from their development are valuable for domestic eVTOL operators and investors to study and learn from [1]. Global eVTOL Industry Development - From 2017 to 2024, the number of global eVTOL companies surged to over 400, with more than 1,000 concept models. Joby and Archer have raised over $5 billion through SPAC listings, marking the beginning of a high-speed development phase in the industry. Key factors for their growth include strong financing capabilities, support from industry stakeholders, progress in airworthiness certification, and a global commercial layout. Joby has raised a total of $2.7 billion, with shareholders including Toyota, SK Telecom, and Delta Airlines, and has over $900 million in cash and short-term investments as of Q1 2025. Joby has completed over 50% of the fourth phase of FAA airworthiness certification and is expanding its market presence in the US, UK, Japan, South Korea, and the UAE. Archer has raised $4.4 billion, backed by Stellantis, Boeing, and United Airlines, with cash reserves exceeding $1 billion as of Q1 2025. Archer's airworthiness progress closely follows Joby, and it plans to launch its "Launch Edition" in 2025, with initial customers in Abu Dhabi, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, while accelerating the mass production of its ARC factory and military collaborations to achieve commercialization quickly [2]. Domestic eVTOL Industry Comparison - Domestic eVTOL manufacturers can be categorized into four types: startup companies (founders typically have aviation backgrounds), traditional general aviation companies (aircraft manufacturers entering eVTOL development), automotive companies (automakers entering eVTOL development), and academic institutions (industry incubation based on university technology). There is a significant gap between domestic and international leading companies. The differences include: - Technological lag: International technologies have converged on tilt-rotor designs, with Joby being the only full tilt-rotor model, while domestic tilt-rotor designs are mostly semi-tilt-rotor. International companies predominantly use piloted modes, while domestic companies are pursuing a dual-track approach of "manned + unmanned," primarily focusing on unmanned operations. Transitioning from "scenic trial" to true "commercial aviation" for unmanned eVTOLs requires not only policy support but also a broad increase in social acceptance, which is approached with cautious optimism. - Resource endowment: Although domestic eVTOL companies are frequently raising funds, their overall scale is significantly smaller than that of international leaders like Joby and Archer. Most domestic companies are startups, characterized by "dispersed, shallow, and phased" industrial resource endowments, with relatively weak integration capabilities in the supply chain, except for automotive manufacturers [3]. Business Logic Divergence - Joby and Archer have rapidly certified and established global standards, while domestic companies primarily focus on CAAC certification. Global commercialization is closely tied to international airworthiness certification, and domestic eVTOL companies are still in the early stages of catching up to Joby and Archer. Key experiences from Joby and Archer's growth paths that are worth emulating for the domestic eVTOL industry include: - Strengthening vertical integration of the industry chain to build a "technology + manufacturing + scenario" collaborative ecosystem - Accelerating mutual recognition of international airworthiness standards - Gradually advancing multi-rotor, compound wing, and tilt-rotor routes - Promoting military-civilian integration [4].