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外卖大战2025:战报可能会骗人,但战线不会
JDJD(US:JD) 商业洞察·2025-07-18 08:59

Core Viewpoint - The current battle in instant retail, particularly in food delivery, is characterized by a significant increase in subsidies and order volumes, but the real competition lies in the underlying infrastructure capabilities rather than just the scale of subsidies [2][4][24]. Group 1: Order Data and System Capabilities - Order data serves as a battle report, while system capabilities represent the true front line of competition [3]. - The latest order statistics show that JD's food delivery surpassed 25 million orders, while Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me exceeded 80 million orders, and Meituan reached a peak of 150 million orders [7][8][12]. - Meituan's growth potential appears greater despite its larger base, as it has achieved significant order volume increases with lower subsidy levels compared to competitors [12][18]. Group 2: Key Differentiators - The primary differentiator among the three platforms is their fulfillment and supply capabilities, with Meituan leading in this area [11][12]. - JD's late entry has resulted in a longer construction period for its infrastructure, raising questions about its capital capacity [11]. - Taobao Flash Sale, while integrating resources from Ele.me, still faces limitations due to its smaller scale compared to Meituan [12]. Group 3: Misconceptions and Market Dynamics - The misconception that food delivery is a flow business is challenged by the reality that demand for food is constant and cannot be artificially created like retail products [17][24]. - The strategy of using subsidies to drive traffic and create social recognition is flawed in the context of food delivery, where supply and fulfillment must align with consumer demand [17][24]. - Historical patterns indicate that subsidy-driven customer acquisition often attracts price-sensitive users rather than genuine demand, leading to low conversion rates and customer lifetime value [23][24]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing subsidy wars are unsustainable and should not continue, as they distort market signals and can lead to supply imbalances and degraded user experiences [21][24]. - The focus should shift from mere order volume competition to enhancing the overall ecosystem of instant retail, emphasizing fulfillment capabilities and user experience [24][25].