【广发宏观吴棋滢】总量紧平衡，节奏镜像化：2025年中期财政环境展望

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal characteristics of 2025 include expansion in total scale, front-loaded issuance rhythm, and differentiated structural features, which can explain some economic phenomena in the first half of the year [1][10][45]. Group 1: Fiscal Characteristics - Characteristic one is the expansion of total scale and differentiation in narrow and broad structures. The narrow fiscal deficit target rate of 4.0% is the upper limit of market expectations, with the target deficit scale increasing by 39.4% compared to 2024, marking the highest growth in the past decade [13][14][45]. - Characteristic two is the front-loaded fiscal rhythm and differentiation between central and local structures. Local governments have been actively issuing debt, but the contribution of infrastructure projects has not been significant. Central fiscal measures, including national bond issuance and "national subsidies," have been the main support for various economic segments [2][16][19]. - Characteristic three indicates that both narrow and broad fiscal revenues are influenced by lagging effects, PPI levels, and land market conditions, with growth rates lower than initial budget targets. This has contributed to the widening fiscal deficit in the first half of the year [22][23][24]. Group 2: Fiscal Revenue Expectations - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, favorable conditions for fiscal revenue include potential improvements in nominal growth due to "anti-involution" policies, which may boost tax revenue. However, adverse factors include a slowdown in real estate sales and a potential decline in land revenue [24][25][26]. Group 3: Government Debt Supply - In the second half of 2025, the government is expected to net increase about 5.8 trillion yuan in various types of government debt. The net financing pressure for government debt in the second half is relatively small compared to the first half [27][28][29]. Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure Projections - Broad fiscal expenditure is primarily determined by the scale of bond issuance and revenue. The expected growth rates for broad fiscal expenditure in optimistic, neutral, and cautious scenarios are approximately 8.4%, 7.8%, and 7.0%, respectively, all higher than the previous year's 2.7% [30][31][32]. Group 5: Infrastructure Performance - Infrastructure performance in the second half of 2025 is expected to improve compared to the first half, driven by the acceleration of long-term national bond funding and the introduction of new policy financial tools [5][33][34]. Group 6: Diverse Fiscal Support Areas - Beyond infrastructure, fiscal support is increasingly diverse, including "national subsidies" to boost retail sales, potential nationwide child-rearing subsidies, urban renewal initiatives, and measures to address corporate debt [35][36][37]. Group 7: Fiscal and Tax System Reforms - The focus of fiscal and tax system reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will include tax reforms, such as shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, and adjustments in the distribution of fiscal powers between central and local governments [39][40][41]. Group 8: Asset Pricing Implications - The fiscal clues for the second half of the year are expected to influence asset pricing, particularly benefiting construction-related industries and emerging sectors like low-altitude and digital economies [43].