机构警告：HBM明年或将大降价

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) prices due to increased competition and supply surplus, which may pose challenges for market leader SK Hynix by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: HBM Market Trends - Analysts warn that HBM prices may experience a double-digit decline by 2026, driven by increased supply and competition, which could pressure SK Hynix's profit margins [1]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its growth forecast for HBM, projecting a year-on-year growth of 25%, down from a previous estimate of 45% [2]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for HBM is adjusted to $36 billion for 2025 and $45 billion for 2026, reflecting a 13% downward revision from earlier estimates [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - SK Hynix faces challenges as NVIDIA's next-generation GPU, Rubin, will not significantly increase HBM capacity, limiting demand growth for SK Hynix [3]. - Analysts predict that SK Hynix's market share may shrink when HBM4 is launched in 2025, despite potential demand boosts from the lifting of export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China [3]. - Samsung's HBM shipments are expected to grow at a rate of 20% annually by 2026, which could further pressure SK Hynix's profit margins [3]. Group 3: Emerging Competitors - Chinese memory companies are rapidly closing the technology gap with global leaders, planning to start mass production of HBM3 by the end of 2026 [4]. - Although Chinese HBM products may face export restrictions, their domestic expansion could weaken SK Hynix's position in the Chinese market [4].