备战新品种 | 丙烯品种手册

Group 1 - Propylene (C3H6) is a crucial low-carbon olefin used primarily in the production of polypropylene, acrylonitrile, isopropanol, acetone, and propylene oxide, reflecting the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][9][19] - The global propylene production capacity exceeded 171 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 2%-6% over the past decade, primarily driven by Northeast Asia, especially China [12][19] - The propylene production process includes steam cracking, catalytic cracking, methanol-to-propylene, and propane dehydrogenation (PDH), with PDH becoming a significant source of propylene alongside steam cracking [9][10][19] Group 2 - The global propylene capacity utilization rate has been declining, expected to drop to around 71% by 2025, a decrease of 10 percentage points compared to five years ago [12][19] - In 2025, China's propylene capacity is projected to account for approximately 39% of the global total, with the main downstream products being polypropylene (PP), which will dominate the demand [19][20] - The domestic propylene effective capacity is estimated to be around 69.73 million tons in 2024, with a significant concentration in the East China region, accounting for over 56% of the total capacity [25][26][38] Group 3 - The domestic propylene consumption has been increasing annually but remains below the capacity growth rate, with the main downstream consumers being PP granules, epoxy propane, and acrylonitrile [38][42] - The import dependency for domestic propylene is gradually decreasing, with most imports coming from South Korea, while exports remain minimal [42][49] - The profitability of PDH production is highly sensitive to propane prices, with recent cost optimization efforts reducing energy consumption and processing fees [9][49]