奈飞：公认好学生还能创造惊喜吗？

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is considered one of the few options that combine growth and risk resistance in a volatile environment, despite its recent performance being less "stunning" than in the past [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Netflix's revenue grew by 16%, exceeding guidance and expectations, primarily driven by price increases in core regions [4]. - The company reported a net addition of over 8 million users, slightly higher than the previous year, attributed to the success of "Squid Game" Season 3, which had higher viewing hours than Season 2 [5][6]. - The Q3 revenue guidance indicates a 17.3% year-over-year growth, surpassing market expectations, and the full-year revenue target has been raised to a range of $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion [7]. - Operating profit margin is expected to increase from 29% to 29.5%, with potential to reach 30% due to favorable exchange rates [7]. - Advertising revenue is projected to double this year, estimated at $1.5 billion to $2 billion, accounting for about 4% of total revenue [8]. Group 2: Content Strategy and Investment - Content investment in Q2 was $4 billion, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter but down 8% year-over-year, with a slower pace of spending expected for the year [8]. - The company is well-positioned with a rich content reserve, which could improve cash flow and provide more room for share buybacks and external investments [8]. - The historical success of classic IPs being revived in recent years raises concerns about sustaining high growth after a peak period, but opportunities exist in the decline of cable TV and competition from platforms like TikTok [11]. Group 3: Valuation and Long-term Outlook - Netflix's valuation premium reflects its unique advantage of being both offensive and defensive in the current market, with GAAP P/E ratios projected at 45x for 2025 and 38x for 2026 [12]. - The company is viewed as a long-term stable growth investment, with a focus on understanding its valuation premium over time rather than short-term fluctuations [13].