【宏观】美国消费增速高于预期，但不宜过度高估韧性——2025年6月美国零售数据点评（高瑞东）

Core Viewpoint - The June retail data in the US shows a rebound in month-on-month growth, but the resilience of the consumer market should not be overestimated due to potential tariff impacts and inflation adjustments [4][5]. Retail Sales Data - In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.1% and recovering from a previous decline of 0.9% [2]. - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, rose by 0.5%, above the expected 0.3% and revised from a previous decline of 0.3% to a decline of 0.2% [2]. Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq saw gains of 0.52%, 0.54%, and 0.75% respectively [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.47%, while the 2-year yield rose by 3 basis points to 3.91% [3]. Economic Outlook - Despite the better-than-expected retail data, doubts remain about the resilience of the US economy, especially in light of poor employment data from June [4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with market expectations indicating a likelihood of two rate cuts in 2025, the first potentially in September [5].