半月追踪 | 7月京沪深杭热度转降，穗汉津等转化率低位持稳

Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in July is experiencing a seasonal decline in transactions, with differentiated expectations across various cities [3][34]. Group 1: Market Overview - Since 2025, the overall real estate market has shown signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with a traditional "small spring" in March-April, followed by sustained market activity in May-June [3]. - In the first half of July, the average sales rate for projects in 30 key cities was 30%, reflecting an 11 percentage point decrease from June 2025 and a 5 percentage point increase compared to July 2024 [4][5]. Group 2: City Classification - Cities are categorized into three types based on market performance: 1. Core first and second-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu) are experiencing a significant decline in sales rates due to the quality of new supply [6]. 2. Weak recovery cities (e.g., Guangzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin) are seeing a notable slowdown in visitor and purchase growth, leading to stable but low customer conversion rates [6]. 3. Cities like Xi'an, Nanjing, and Zhengzhou are facing a decline in customer conversion rates, with a persistent wait-and-see attitude among buyers [6]. Group 3: Performance of Hot Cities - In July, the enthusiasm for new launches in hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has decreased, with each city launching fewer than 10 projects [8]. - The sales rate in these cities has dropped by over 20% compared to June, with only Beijing and Hangzhou showing slightly better performance than the previous year [8]. Group 4: Weak Recovery Cities - In cities like Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan, both visitor and purchase numbers have significantly declined, with Guangzhou experiencing a 17% drop in visitors and a 47% drop in purchases in the first week of July [12][14]. - Despite the decline, Wuhan's sales rate has increased due to the introduction of suitable properties, with a notable decrease in the number of new launches [16]. Group 5: Other Cities - Cities such as Xi'an, Nanjing, and Zhengzhou are witnessing a continuous decline in customer conversion rates, with Xi'an's conversion rate dropping from 6.33% at the end of June to 3.74% [24]. - Nanjing's market heat is also declining, with a significant drop in purchase numbers compared to visitor numbers, leading to a conversion rate of only 4.55% [27]. Group 6: Conclusion - Overall, the new housing market in July is facing a seasonal decline, with insufficient supply and general quality issues contributing to a lack of growth momentum [34]. - Differentiated expectations persist across cities, with hot cities experiencing a significant drop in market enthusiasm, while weak recovery cities show fluctuating trends [34].