从“资产荒”角度看“内卷”的深层原因

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution" and its significance in the context of supply-side structural reforms, emphasizing the need to analyze the root causes of involution to effectively address it [1] - The capital market is experiencing two main trends: a decline in risk appetite and a decrease in risk-free investment returns, leading to an "asset shortage" phenomenon [1][2] - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds dropped to a record low of 1.55% in April, indicating a persistent "asset shortage" that affects both capital markets and the real economy [1] Group 2 - The profit margins of large-scale manufacturing enterprises have been declining, with profit rates falling from 5.35% in 2021 to 4.25% in the first five months of 2024 [2][5] - The revenue generated per 100 yuan of assets for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has decreased from 107 yuan in 2022 to 85.2 yuan in the first five months of 2024 [2][5] - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition is characterized by price wars among enterprises, leading to increased volume without corresponding revenue or profit growth [5] Group 3 - The export price index for China's goods has dropped by 15% from January 2023 to September 2024, indicating a significant decline compared to other emerging economies [8] - The average accounts receivable period for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has increased from 54 days in 2022 to 71.7 days in the first five months of 2024, reflecting financial pressures [11] - The capacity utilization rate for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has decreased from 75.8% in 2022 to 74.2% in the first half of 2024, highlighting the oversupply situation [12] Group 4 - The increase in manufacturing investment has outpaced overall investment growth since 2021, with manufacturing investment growth rates exceeding overall rates by 8.6 to 6 percentage points from 2021 to 2024 [15] - Local governments are incentivized to boost manufacturing investment to meet GDP targets, leading to potential overcapacity in certain sectors [21][23] - The manufacturing sector has seen significant investment in new industries, with production in solar batteries, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles exceeding global demand [26] Group 5 - Consumer spending is closely tied to income expectations, with urban non-private unit average wage growth slowing from 6.7% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2024 [29][30] - The high savings rate in China, at 42.49% in 2023, reflects a preference for low-risk assets over riskier investments, contributing to the "asset shortage" [39][40] - The income distribution disparity, where the top 20% of households account for 45.5% of disposable income, hampers overall consumption growth [35][46] Group 6 - The article draws parallels between the current "anti-involution" movement and the supply-side structural reforms of a decade ago, highlighting the need for a shift in focus from supply-side measures to stimulating consumer demand [56][62] - The current economic environment differs significantly from that of ten years ago, with reduced potential in real estate demand and a more cautious consumer sentiment [57][58] - The strategies for "anti-involution" should include reducing excess capacity, minimizing ineffective investments, and increasing household income to stimulate consumption [62]