美国消费仍具韧性——全球经济观察第4期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - Major global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 1.5% respectively compared to last week [1] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points due to fiscal concerns [1] - Commodity prices saw a decline in gold and oil prices, while the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 0.6% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The next Federal Reserve chair candidate is under significant market scrutiny, especially after President Trump's comments about potentially firing Powell, which caused temporary market panic [3] - The selection process for the next Fed chair has begun, as stated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering pausing interest rate cuts in July despite complications from U.S. tariff threats [3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. inflation showed a slight rebound, with June CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.7% and core CPI increasing to 2.9% [9] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations, driven mainly by a recovery in auto sales [9] - The July Beige Book indicated continued moderate growth in the U.S. economy, with consumer confidence slightly improving, although inflation expectations for the next year decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4% [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7, the highest in over three years, driven by progress in U.S.-EU tariff negotiations and government investment plans [17] - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth slightly slowed to 3.4% in June, influenced by gasoline subsidies and temporary electricity fee reductions, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 39 consecutive months [18]