申万宏观·周度研究成果（7.12-7.18）

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising attention towards "anti-involution" in the market, highlighting significant misunderstandings regarding the concept, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and the various hidden mechanisms involved in "anti-involution" [4]. Deep Dive Topics - The "anti-involution" topic has gained traction, but there is a considerable divergence in understanding, with many interpreting it through a supply-side reform lens, which may lead to misinterpretations [4]. - The article emphasizes that beyond production adjustments and self-discipline discussions, there are numerous hidden strategies associated with "anti-involution" [4]. Hot Topics - Since June, there has been a resurgence of the "golden-haired girl" trading phenomenon overseas, with domestic sentiment also heating up. The article questions which data might exceed expectations and whether the market's main narrative will shift due to the effects of tariffs [8]. - The importance of "strategic resources" has been underscored in the context of changing global trade dynamics, prompting an exploration of which resources in China possess strategic attributes and how they should be developed in the future [10]. High-Frequency Tracking - The role of "export grabbing" is evolving, with a shift from emerging markets to the United States, indicating a change in export dynamics [13]. - Credit improvement is primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises, reflecting a trend in financial data [17]. - The June economic data reveals five significant anomalies, suggesting new changes in the economy that may be hidden [21]. - The article notes that the third quarter will serve as a verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects, with a focus on the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [24]. - Domestic infrastructure construction has shown a continuous recovery, while industrial production remains relatively stable, although there is a divergence in the construction sector and a slowdown in real estate transactions [26]. - The expiration of tariff exemptions has led to declines in most developed markets, indicating a potential impact on international trade dynamics [29].