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票据利率创年内新低!冲量减弱,“晴雨表”失灵?

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the bill discounting market, highlighting the decline in 6M bill discount rates and the implications of interest rate inversion between short-term and long-term bills, indicating banks' strategic positioning for future credit needs [1][2][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - As of July 18, the 6M national bank bill discount rate fell to 0.81%, marking a significant drop of over 20 basis points since the beginning of July [1]. - The 1M and 3M bill discount rates have remained stable, fluctuating between 1.20% and 1.22% [1][5]. - The volatility of the 6M bill discount rate has decreased significantly in 2023, with fluctuations limited to a few dozen basis points compared to over 150 basis points in previous years [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The inversion of interest rates between short-term and long-term bills may be attributed to banks' proactive measures to secure bill assets in anticipation of credit demand in January [2][6]. - The demand for cross-year bills has increased, with major banks actively purchasing 1-month maturity bills, leading to a gradual decline in their prices [7]. Group 3: Credit Demand and Bill Financing - Despite a lack of significant improvement in overall credit demand, the behavior of bill financing has weakened, with a reported decrease of 464 billion yuan in bill financing during the first half of the year [8][9]. - The trend indicates a shift in banks' strategies, with a notable increase in short-term loans, suggesting a change in the credit structure [9][10]. Group 4: Predictive Value of Bill Rates - The traditional correlation between bill rates and credit demand has weakened, as evidenced by instances where rising bill rates did not align with expected credit growth [10]. - The article notes that the relationship between bill rates and actual credit issuance has diverged, indicating that bill rates may no longer serve as reliable indicators of future credit trends [10].