核心CPI能持续修复吗？ | 政策与监管

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of core CPI in China, highlighting a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, the highest in 14 months, driven by rising prices of durable goods and summer travel demand [4][5]. Group 1: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month [4][5]. - The main drivers for this recovery include the rising prices of gold jewelry, the "trade-in" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [5][7]. Group 2: Gold Prices and Their Impact - Gold prices have been experiencing short-term fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 41.3% in June and a cumulative rise of 38.3% from January to June [7]. - The increase in gold prices has contributed approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI increase, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively [7]. Group 3: Durable Goods Price Trends - Durable goods prices are expected to rise initially before experiencing a slight decline, influenced by the "trade-in" policy and the early release of demand [11]. - The "trade-in" policy has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of prices for automobiles and home appliances, with subsidies exceeding 155 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [11]. Group 4: Service Price Recovery - Service prices have shown signs of recovery, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in June, supported by high travel demand during holidays [14]. - However, the momentum for service price recovery may slow down due to pressures in the job market, particularly for recent graduates, which could affect rental prices [14].