【广发宏观团队】浮出水面的两条政策线索

Group 1 - The policy focus is shifting from actual growth to nominal growth, with an emphasis on "anti-involution" measures to improve product quality and eliminate low-price competition [1][2] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for government investment to effectively drive social investment, especially in light of expected slowdowns in exports, consumption, and equipment investment in the second half of the year [2][3] - The implementation of new policies in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials is expected to accelerate, aiming to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [1][4] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policies are likely to cover industries with low capacity utilization in both traditional raw materials and emerging manufacturing sectors [2] - The government is expected to utilize various policy tools, including environmental regulations, credit policies, and anti-competitive laws, to address the issue of involution [2] - The impact of supply-side constraints on economic growth and employment is anticipated to be mitigated by improvements in nominal growth, which could enhance corporate profitability [2] Group 3 - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, signifies a trend towards major infrastructure projects led by the central government [4][21][28] - The financial report for June indicates a significant increase in the central bank's total assets, reflecting a moderate level of liquidity in the banking system [18][19] - The construction of the hydropower project is expected to contribute to the overall economic growth and infrastructure development in the region [28] Group 4 - The steel industry index has seen a notable increase of 8.7% since the announcement of "anti-involution" policies, outperforming the broader market index [22][24] - The pricing process in the steel industry is currently in the early stages of adjustment, with expectations for further policy details to emerge [24] - The overall market breadth is improving, with a significant increase in the proportion of stocks surpassing their 240-day moving averages, indicating a broad-based market rally [8][9]