热点思考 | “解雇”鲍威尔？——“流动性笔记”系列之二（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's rumored intention to "fire" Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, and the resulting market reactions, including a significant sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies. Group 1: Rumors of Firing Powell - The rumors of Trump potentially "firing" Powell have led to market volatility, with a notable "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies observed on July 16-17 [2][5]. - Trump's motivation for wanting to dismiss Powell includes a desire for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and alleviate fiscal pressure from rising interest payments, which accounted for 16.9% of federal spending by June 2025 [22][33]. - Legal challenges exist regarding Trump's ability to fire Powell, as he would need to prove "misconduct," and Powell could seek legal recourse to maintain his position [38][41]. Group 2: Powell's Potential Resignation - Historically, two Federal Reserve Chairmen have resigned under political pressure, but Powell has expressed a strong commitment to completing his term, stating he cannot envision any situation, aside from death, that would prevent him from doing so [3][45]. - Powell's determination to remain in office contrasts with past instances where political pressure led to resignations, indicating a robust stance against potential dismissal [45]. Group 3: Next Chairman Nomination Process - If Trump successfully dismisses Powell, the nomination process for a new chairman could accelerate, with potential candidates including Waller, Hassett, and Basant, each with distinct qualifications and political alignments [48][59]. - The nomination process involves presidential nomination, Senate hearings, and confirmation, which can vary in duration; past instances show that some nominations have been completed in as little as six days [55]. Group 4: Economic and Market Implications - If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the economic outlook may only improve in the short term, with long-term inflation expectations and actual interest rates rising, which could hinder economic growth [4]. - The market's reaction to the rumors of Powell's dismissal included a steepening of the yield curve, with significant declines in stock prices and the dollar, while gold prices increased [20][22].