“反内卷”推动资源品价格——每周经济观察第29期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also noting the impact of external trade dynamics. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Land premium rates have rebounded to 7% as of July 13, with a two-week average of 5.9%, compared to 5.47% in June and 4.93% in May [2][10] - Domestic resource prices continue to rise, with significant increases in coal and steel prices, including a 1.6% rise in Shanxi thermal coal and a 6.7% increase in main coking coal prices [2][35] - Infrastructure activities are performing better than last year, with the oil asphalt operating rate at 32.8%, up 6.3% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, compared to 37.4% last year [2][16] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 5.96% as of July 13, down from 7.05% on July 6, indicating a decline in economic activity [3][5] - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% as of July 13, down from 15% in June and 13.3% in May [3][9] - The decline in residential property sales has widened, with a 23.7% decrease in transaction area for 67 cities as of July 18, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% as of July 13, down from 4.5% the previous week [3][20] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has also declined, with a 15-day year-on-year decrease of approximately 11.1% as of July 19 [3][21] Group 4: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.59 trillion yuan issued as of July 18, representing 59% of the annual target, faster than the 42% progress of the previous year [4][41] - Bond market yields have shown fluctuations, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3490%, 1.5256%, and 1.6652%, respectively, as of July 18 [4][60]