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中金:港股通与恒指调整预览(2025-8)
中金点睛·2025-07-20 23:21

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming semi-annual review results of the Hang Seng Index series, which will be announced on August 22, 2025, and the potential adjustments to the index constituents that could impact significant passive fund flows [1]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - Potential candidates for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index include Bank of Communications, Pop Mart, Yum China, XPeng Motors, Huazhu Group, JD Logistics, and Innovent Biologics, based on market capitalization and industry representation [2]. - Historical data indicates that actual results may differ significantly from predictions based on market capitalization rankings, as non-quantitative factors may influence the final decisions [2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - An estimated 19 companies are expected to be added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 17 may be removed, influenced by the recent changes in the calculation method for average market capitalization [3]. - The new method for calculating average market capitalization now considers the average market value on non-suspended trading days, which may affect the eligibility of certain stocks [3]. Group 3: Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria - The criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect require companies to meet specific market capitalization thresholds and other conditions, such as being listed for at least six months and having a market cap above HKD 5 billion [4]. - Companies that do not meet the criteria, such as those with market caps below HKD 4 billion or those that are suspended, may be excluded from the Stock Connect [4]. Group 4: Timeline and Market Impact - The official results of the index adjustments will be announced on August 22, 2025, and will take effect on September 8, 2025, with subsequent adjustments to the investable universe for the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges [5]. - Following the announcement, there may be significant trading volume spikes as active funds may engage in arbitrage, while passive funds will likely adjust their holdings to minimize tracking errors [5]. Group 5: ETF Fund Sizes - The article provides data on the sizes of ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index, with total assets of approximately USD 30.353 billion, USD 6.629 billion, and USD 26.119 billion respectively [6].