国泰海通 · 晨报0721｜宏观、策略、海外策略

Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - Tariff measures in the U.S. saw a high start but began to cool down after April 9, leading to market perceptions of TACO [2] - Actual tariff revenue growth from January to May was 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, due to China's strategies to reduce high-tariff imports and ineffective implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada [3][4] - The economic impact of tariffs was lower than expected, with stable export volumes from China and low inflation in the U.S. despite tariffs, attributed to lower effective tax rates and weak demand in the automotive market [5] Group 2: Mid-Year Earnings Preview - The overall economic growth remains constrained, with a pre-announcement rate of 43.7% for mid-year earnings, lower than the past three years, indicating a weak profit growth of 1.0% for the entire A-share market [8] - Emerging technology sectors are showing signs of improvement, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing, while traditional sectors are lagging [9][10] - Certain cyclical industries, such as rare metals and chemicals, are experiencing price increases, and some sectors are showing signs of recovery in earnings due to capacity reductions [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally in the first half of the year but has shown weakness since late June, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and currency fluctuations [13][14] - Current market heat in Hong Kong is at historical mid-levels, with technology and financial sectors showing lower heat compared to A-shares, while healthcare and consumer sectors are performing better [14] - Positive factors are accumulating for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a potential outperformance against A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by consumption policies and foreign capital inflows [15]