【金工】风险偏好提升,关注政策催化——金融工程市场跟踪周报20250719(祁嫣然/张威/陈颖)
光大证券研究·2025-07-20 14:03

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to show a trend of oscillation and upward movement, with the ChiNext Index leading the major broad-based indices [4] - As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shanghai 50 by 0.28%, the CSI 300 by 1.09%, the CSI 500 by 1.20%, the CSI 1000 by 1.41%, the ChiNext Index by 3.17%, and the Northbound 50 Index decreased by 0.16% [5] Valuation Insights - As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index is in the "danger" valuation percentile, while other major broad-based indices are in the "moderate" valuation percentile [6] - According to the CITIC industry classification, sectors such as building materials, light industry manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, textile and apparel, pharmaceuticals, banking, computers, and comprehensive finance are in the "danger" valuation percentile [7] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The market's risk appetite is increasing, but investors have not yet reached a consensus on further upward movement of the index [4] - Institutional research indicates that the top five stocks receiving the most attention this week are Xinyi Technology (183 institutions), Yingxi Network (171), Tuojing Technology (148), Zhongji Xuchuang (145), and Xinshi Da (140) [9] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net inflow at HKD 11.658 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect at HKD 9.798 billion [10] ETF Performance - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 1.38%, with a net outflow of CNY 15.043 billion, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 5.53%, with a net inflow of CNY 5.289 billion [10] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 1.07%, with a net outflow of CNY 718 million, and for commodity ETFs, the median return was 0.39%, with a net outflow of CNY 1.235 billion [10] Fund Concentration - As of July 18, 2025, the degree of separation among fund clusters has slightly increased compared to the previous week, with excess returns for clustered stocks and funds showing a slight increase [11]