美国稳定币监管立法落地，中国工业经济韧性凸显：申万期货早间评论-20250721

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the implementation of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework and the resilience of China's industrial economy [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" with a vote of 308 to 122, establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar [1] - In China, the industrial and information sectors showed steady growth in the first half of the year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, and manufacturing's share of GDP remaining stable at 25.7% [1] Group 2 - Steel mills are currently maintaining profit margins, with iron water production slowly declining, leading to increasing supply pressure in the steel market [2] - Steel inventory continues to decrease, and while exports face tariffs and anti-dumping measures, billet exports remain strong, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in the short term [2] - The overall steel market is expected to experience a strong and volatile price trend due to rising raw material costs and positive macroeconomic expectations [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market is primarily in a correction phase, with significant movements in the non-ferrous metals sector and a market turnover of 1.59 trillion yuan [3] - The financing balance increased by 7.073 billion yuan to 1.891157 trillion yuan, indicating a growing interest in capital allocation within the market [3] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from supportive technology policies [3] Group 4 - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, while silver shows stronger performance, influenced by recent economic data and potential changes in U.S. monetary policy [4] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6%, significantly exceeding expectations, while the June CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations [4] - The ongoing fiscal deficit in the U.S. and the People's Bank of China’s continued gold purchases provide long-term support for gold prices, despite short-term price hesitance [4] Group 5 - Domestic GDP data for the first half of the year shows that several provinces outperformed the national average, with Hubei province achieving a GDP growth of 6.2% [6] - The China Iron and Steel Association is advocating for strict control of capacity increases and the establishment of new mechanisms to prevent overcapacity in the steel industry [7]