从“资产荒”角度看“内卷”的深层原因︱重阳荐文

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the root causes of "involution" in the context of declining investment returns and risk appetite in the capital market, suggesting that addressing these issues is crucial for effective countermeasures against involution [1]. Group 1: Declining Investment Returns - The operating profit margin of large-scale manufacturing enterprises has been on a downward trend, with figures of 5.35%, 5%, and 4.63% for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, further declining to 4.25% in the first five months of this year [5]. - The revenue generated per 100 yuan of assets for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has decreased from 107 yuan in 2022 to 92.3 yuan in 2024, dropping to 85.2 yuan in the first five months of this year [5]. Group 2: Involution in Competition - Increased operational pressures have led to intensified competition among enterprises, characterized as "involutionary competition," where companies resort to price cuts to gain market share, resulting in "increased volume without increased revenue" [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative growth for 33 consecutive months since October 2022, despite the value-added growth of large-scale manufacturing enterprises being 3%, 5%, and 6.1% for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, and accelerating to 7% in the first half of this year [10]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The root cause of "involutionary competition" is identified as an oversupply in certain industries, with capacity utilization rates for large-scale manufacturing enterprises at 75.8%, 75.28%, and 75.2% for 2022, 2023, and 2024, further declining to 74.2% in the first half of this year [18]. - Manufacturing investment growth has outpaced overall investment growth since 2021, with manufacturing investment growth rates exceeding overall investment growth by 8.6, 4, 3.5, and 6 percentage points from 2021 to 2024 [19]. Group 4: Government Influence on Investment - Local governments are incentivized to boost manufacturing investment to meet GDP targets, leading to increased investment in new industries, which has resulted in overcapacity in sectors like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles [31]. - The financial support for manufacturing has increased, with long-term loans for manufacturing growing at rates exceeding 40%, providing substantial funding for investment expansion [28]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Economic Structure - Consumer confidence has declined, with the income confidence index dropping from 124.95 in 2019 to 95.42 in 2024, while the average wage growth for urban non-private units has slowed to 2.8% in 2024 [32]. - The high savings rate in China, at 42.49% in 2023, is attributed to a preference for low-risk assets over riskier investments, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment [40]. Group 6: Comparison with Past Economic Reforms - The current "anti-involution" initiative is likened to the supply-side structural reforms of a decade ago, focusing on enhancing product quality and addressing low-price competition, while also emphasizing the need to stimulate consumer demand [61]. - The article suggests that the strategies for "anti-involution" should prioritize reducing excess capacity and inefficient investments while increasing household income to boost consumption [61].