深度 | 黄金还能突破新高么？——大宗商品分析框架之七【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach new highs, driven by underlying factors such as U.S.-China competition, economic conditions, and central bank purchasing behavior [1][4][46]. Group 1: U.S.-China Competition and Global Dynamics - U.S.-China competition is a fundamental driver of the gold bull market, with the U.S. experiencing a relative decline in global standing, leading to a restructuring of the global order and increased uncertainty [1][4]. - The shift in global economic, technological, political, and military dynamics has accelerated the transformation of the international monetary system, contributing to a wave of de-dollarization [18][22]. - The U.S. military's strategic contraction has created regional power vacuums, resulting in increased local conflicts, which further drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [20][22]. Group 2: Economic Factors and Uncertainties - Economic fundamentals indicate that as the U.S. economy weakens, the demand for interest rate cuts will rise, potentially boosting gold prices [2][26]. - The ongoing expansion of U.S. debt is likely to lead central banks and investors to increase their gold purchases [26][29]. - Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine will continue to support gold prices [27][29]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, with global demand for gold reaching new highs, exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [22][35]. - The demand for gold ETFs has also risen, with global holdings surpassing 3,600 tons and showing a net inflow for 12 consecutive months [24][35]. - Despite high gold prices potentially dampening jewelry demand, the impact is limited as consumers adapt to new price levels [33][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The outlook for gold prices in the second half of the year remains optimistic, with expectations for prices to exceed $3,700 per ounce by year-end, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [3][46]. - Historical data suggests that investment and central bank purchases are the primary drivers of gold price movements, with geopolitical and economic factors influencing short-term volatility [41][43]. - The article emphasizes that the current environment of de-dollarization and increased geopolitical tensions will likely sustain upward pressure on gold prices [18][46].