氧化铝：情绪&产能清退，who cares？

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" has significantly boosted the futures market, particularly impacting alumina prices, which reached the limit up due to policy expectations and structural contradictions in the fundamentals [3][5]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a plan focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [5]. - The "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" outlines specific requirements for alumina, emphasizing capacity upgrades and environmental standards [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent trading dynamics indicate a shift from a delivery-driven market to one influenced by excess supply, as evidenced by the accumulation of inventory and price adjustments [4][15]. - Despite a structural oversupply in alumina, the market is currently experiencing hidden shortages, with liquidity issues persisting in the spot market [10][15]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The operational capacity of alumina has reached a historical high of 93.85 million tons, with a capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum at 2.12, indicating increasing structural pressure [15]. - The reduction in warehouse receipts due to the delivery of the July contract has created temporary supply constraints, but there is an expectation of alleviation as more receipts are registered [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by emotional factors, with a need for a shift towards a more relaxed supply situation to stabilize prices [17].