国泰海通｜机械：雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程已获核准，6月挖掘机出口快速增长

Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to see continuous improvement in its prosperity due to the gradual implementation of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and a cyclical upswing in the industry, with excavator domestic sales growth likely to continue rising. Although exports face certain trade friction risks, most major engineering machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, making the risks manageable. Overall, opportunities outweigh risks in 2025 [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In June 2025, domestic excavator sales reached 8,136 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.20%, while total excavator sales were 18,804 units, up 13.3% year-on-year. Exports accounted for 10,668 units, reflecting a 19.3% increase [2]. - For the first half of 2025, total excavator sales were 120,520 units, a 16.8% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 65,637 units, up 22.9%, and exports at 54,883 units, up 10.2% [2]. - The average monthly working hours for major engineering machinery in June 2025 were 77.2 hours, down 9.11% year-on-year, with excavators averaging 64.2 hours [2]. - The monthly operating rate for major engineering machinery in June 2025 was 56.9%, a decrease of 7.55 percentage points year-on-year, with excavators at 58.2% [2]. Group 2: Trade Risks - Most Chinese engineering machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, with XCMG's U.S. market revenue accounting for less than 1% of total revenue, and Zoomlion's around 1%. Hengli Hydraulic's export revenue to the U.S. is approximately 5% of total revenue, indicating that overall risks are manageable [3].