国泰海通｜宏观：难征的税

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariff measures, indicating that the actual tax rate increase is significantly lower than the theoretical value, leading to limited effects on the economy. The second half of the tariff measures may address existing loopholes, making the economic impact clearer [2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Measures - The U.S. tariff measures in the first half of 2025 can be characterized as "high open, low close," with a series of announcements leading to a gradual reduction in tariff intensity [6][7]. - The TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) phenomenon has emerged, suggesting market desensitization to tariff changes due to the inconsistent application of tariffs [8]. Group 2: Tariff Revenue - Tariff revenue growth has been disappointing, with an actual increase of 6.5% compared to a theoretical increase of 14.5%, indicating that revenue expectations have not been met [11][12]. - Three main reasons for this underperformance include: 1. China has reduced the proportion of high-tariff products in U.S. imports through transshipment and expedited shipping, with China's share of U.S. imports dropping from 13.4% in 2024 to 7.4% in May 2025 [14]. 2. The 25% fentanyl tariff on Mexico and Canada has had minimal practical effect, with actual tax rate increases of only 1.8% and 4.1%, respectively [14]. 3. There has been a shift in product-level adjustments, with higher tariff products seeing a more significant decline in import proportions [14]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on China's exports and U.S. inflation has been less than expected. Chinese exports have shown stable volume and price increases, with a potential mild decline in the future [21][22]. - U.S. inflation has remained low, partly due to the actual tax rate increases being lower than theoretical values, and weak demand in the automotive market and fluctuations in oil prices have further suppressed inflation [24]. Group 4: Future Tariff Measures - The second half of the tariff measures may see an increase in actual tax rates, as there are indications that the Trump administration may seek to address the shortcomings of the initial measures [26][27]. - If there is a genuine intent to raise tariff rates for revenue or other purposes, the economic impact could exceed expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of excessive TACO trading risks [27].