日本政局剧变，日元却走高，为何？

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ruling coalition of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority in the House of Councillors election, both the yen and Japanese stock futures unexpectedly rose, indicating market resilience and investor sentiment towards political stability [1][5]. Group 1: Election Results and Market Reaction - The LDP and Komeito coalition lost its majority in the recent election, marking the first time since its establishment in 1955 that the LDP has not secured a majority in both houses of the National Diet [1]. - Following the election results, the yen initially rose by 0.7% against the dollar, reaching a high of 147.79 before settling around 148.48, and then rebounding to approximately 147.80 [2]. - Market analysts noted that investors had anticipated the coalition's loss, and the actual results were relatively mild, which helped avoid severe political turmoil [5][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Some investors had prepared for a more significant defeat for the coalition and the potential resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leading to a short-term rebound in the yen as political risk eased [5]. - Despite the yen's rise, several investment banks remain bearish on the yen, with Bank of America maintaining a short position, suggesting that any short-term rebounds should be viewed as selling opportunities [5][16]. - HSBC issued a warning that the USD/JPY could exceed 152 due to political and Bank of Japan risks, indicating a potential "lira-ization" of the yen [6]. Group 3: Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The future price movements of the yen will depend on three main factors: whether the LDP retains or loses its coalition majority, whether Ishiba continues as Prime Minister, and the outcome of any leadership elections within the LDP if Ishiba resigns [13]. - If Ishiba resigns, the market may react negatively, leading to further yen depreciation and increased volatility, especially as concerns about fiscal expansion grow [14][16]. - Conversely, if Ishiba remains in power and seeks to expand the coalition with compatible parties, this could alleviate concerns about pro-cyclical fiscal policies, potentially causing the USD/JPY to initially retreat to around 148 [16]. Group 4: Economic Policy Implications - Analysts from Nomura suggested that the loss of majority seats could lead to dual policies of consumption tax cuts and cash subsidies, which might boost the economy in the short term but could result in significant economic pullbacks once these policies expire [17].