中金：换个视角看汇率

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving consensus around a weaker US dollar since April 2023, highlighting the complexities of predicting exchange rate movements due to various influencing factors, including differing views among US officials on the dollar's valuation and its implications for the economy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent rebound in the US dollar index and the weakening of the euro raise questions about whether these trends are temporary or indicative of a structural reversal [2][3]. - The divergence in views among US officials, with some advocating for a weaker dollar to support manufacturing and others emphasizing the need for a strong dollar, reflects the ongoing debate about the dollar's role in the economy [3][9]. - The article suggests a shift from a neoclassical framework, which focuses on the current account as the main determinant of exchange rates, to a post-Keynesian perspective that emphasizes capital flows as the fundamental driver of currency valuation [2][10][19]. Group 2: Dollar's International Status - The dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency has provided the US with significant advantages, including improved financing conditions and a sustained trade deficit over the past 50 years [3][23]. - Concerns about US debt sustainability and inflation have led to a consensus that the dollar's international standing is under threat, with market reactions indicating a potential decline in confidence [3][33]. - The article notes that while the dollar has weakened, the extent of this decline and its long-term implications remain uncertain, as no major events have yet tested the dollar's status in the international monetary system [32][53]. Group 3: Euro's Position - The euro has appreciated approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by market expectations and a relative improvement in the eurozone's financial accounts [4][63]. - Despite the euro's recent strength, the eurozone faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, innovation deficits, and geopolitical risks that could hinder its long-term economic prospects [4][74]. - The article emphasizes that while the euro's position may improve marginally in the short term, the underlying structural issues within the eurozone could limit its ability to capitalize on a weaker dollar [4][74].